{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daf6f914-9357-47e5-addc-33a1ac201e45", "symbol": "3038", "name": "Emerging Display Technologies Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.939, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.211, "architecture_energy": 53.888, "architecture_maturity": 10.869, "architecture_confidence": 81.113, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.87, "rotation_up": 13.71, "upward_expansion": 9.45, "deceleration": 43.3, "rotation_down": 69.21, "downward_expansion": 87.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.683333, 20.94, 21.658333, 21.796776 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.6, "trend_reference": 21.935156, "distance_from_trend": -0.060868, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.902254, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.138157, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.60201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045779, "excess_performance": -0.391512, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060868, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003272, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.138157, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014714, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045779, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.316639, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 550399, "relative_activity": 0.314111, "balance": 2.316639, "dry_up": 0.566144, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052278, "annualized_volatility": 0.265634, "from_high_reference": -0.188976, "from_low_reference": 0.09088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.935156, "fair_value_reference": 23.902254, "structural_low": 19.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.007784, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.02793, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.127098, "worst_return": -0.0576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065367, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.054262, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.332301, "worst_return": -0.085409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.07533, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.139411, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.185547, "worst_return": -0.106157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.476521, "energy": 35.548565, "activity_lines": [ 21.596666, 22.163636, 22.32777, 22.249507 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.65, "volume": 794216, "typical_volume": 1813853.1, "trend": 22.156312, "fair_value": 24.180357, "relative_strength": -30.414365, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.932658, "energy": 55.24329, "activity_lines": [ 21.18, 21.827273, 22.180811, 22.1499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 1538462, "typical_volume": 1826881.95, "trend": 22.106312, "fair_value": 24.112831, "relative_strength": -28.195698, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.655858, "energy": 67.095948, "activity_lines": [ 20.96, 21.551818, 22.052381, 22.062396 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.799999, "volume": 1008755, "typical_volume": 1766628.8, "trend": 22.053149, "fair_value": 24.031878, "relative_strength": -29.105308, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.187447, "energy": 67.27051, "activity_lines": [ 20.806666, 21.31909, 21.929285, 21.978117 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.65, "volume": 870469, "typical_volume": 1760846.85, "trend": 22.007638, "fair_value": 23.960102, "relative_strength": -31.181907, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.265534, "energy": 62.638869, "activity_lines": [ 20.713333, 21.102727, 21.795952, 21.887592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 20.6, "volume": 550399, "typical_volume": 1752241.25, "trend": 21.935156, "fair_value": 23.902254, "relative_strength": -29.60201, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.210708, "energy": 53.887718, "activity_lines": [ 20.683333, 20.94, 21.658333, 21.796776 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }