{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "daf7d690-71c4-45a7-86f7-411d5c8eea8d",
    "symbol": "EME",
    "name": "EMCOR Group Inc",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 64.938,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -8.901,
    "architecture_energy": 11.471,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.606,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.479,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.56,
        "rotation_up": 23.93,
        "upward_expansion": 16.26,
        "deceleration": 61.74,
        "rotation_down": 45.66,
        "downward_expansion": 41.26
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        785.23093,
        786.094822,
        808.923084,
        803.291964
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 816.9,
    "trend_reference": 788.879869,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.035519,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 488.578121,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.671995,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 0.819897,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.069291,
    "excess_performance": -0.056334,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.035519,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.077551,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.671995,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.438929,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008199,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.249078,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.069291,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.87212,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2129783,
      "relative_activity": 1.076783,
      "balance": 0.87212,
      "dry_up": 1.283924,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.082197,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.303947,
      "from_high_reference": -0.141876,
      "from_low_reference": 0.447651
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 788.879869,
      "fair_value_reference": 488.578121,
      "structural_low": 668.82,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.013375,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.059668,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.106886,
        "worst_return": -0.093028,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.022133,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.067248,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.154707,
        "worst_return": -0.110441,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.286748,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.252276,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.517917,
        "worst_return": 0.055579,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.524214,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.469464,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.775769,
        "worst_return": 0.27266,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.202312,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.076209,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.145893,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.093028,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.285656,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015114,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.159708,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.110701,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-05",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.113868,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005827,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.094885,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-06-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.014131,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.094542,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-31",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024416,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 1932759.45,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "gate": "mixed",
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        "energy": 29.34749,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 744.85,
        "volume": 1702938,
        "typical_volume": 1904401.8,
        "trend": 777.852021,
        "fair_value": 481.017767,
        "relative_strength": -3.57137,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -28.823607,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 797.43,
        "volume": 3216975,
        "typical_volume": 1986546.3,
        "trend": 783.168304,
        "fair_value": 484.748561,
        "relative_strength": 2.016607,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -18.780351,
        "energy": 31.661012,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 816.9,
        "volume": 2129783,
        "typical_volume": 1977913.65,
        "trend": 788.879869,
        "fair_value": 488.578121,
        "relative_strength": 0.819897,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -8.901239,
        "energy": 11.470787,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}