{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dafb55b0-0de1-4865-8c50-6310167f410b", "symbol": "SLR", "name": "Solaria Energ\u00eda y Medio Ambiente, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.38, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -60.663, "architecture_energy": 85.317, "architecture_maturity": 27.683, "architecture_confidence": 79.201, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.17, "rotation_up": 16.11, "upward_expansion": 27.96, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 83.78, "downward_expansion": 71.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.032, 18.418, 20.484571, 20.996968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.82, "trend_reference": 20.9825, "distance_from_trend": -0.246038, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.484513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.173198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.735137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.105204, "excess_performance": -0.229634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.246038, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046683, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.173198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.698231, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.678228, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105204, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.332684, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4052708, "relative_activity": 1.165061, "balance": 0.332684, "dry_up": 1.28668, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090951, "annualized_volatility": 0.441828, "from_high_reference": -0.388008, "from_low_reference": 0.55022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.9825, "fair_value_reference": 13.484513, "structural_low": 15.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.139132, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.042628, "worst_return": -0.176672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.15417, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.248572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.126419, "worst_return": -0.217526, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.147554, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.222519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.117736, "worst_return": -0.340206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.085461, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.202577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.562371, "worst_return": -0.391448, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001117, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08728, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.151122, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.068471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069468, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049485, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.148488, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.11649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.587312, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169765, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107979, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.99, "volume": 1667824, "typical_volume": 2106277.85, "trend": 15.227, "fair_value": 17.542436, "relative_strength": -24.932325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.185277, 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"activity_lines": [ 19.227334, 20.700273, 21.996452, 21.790172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.264999, "volume": 3238102, "typical_volume": 3570363.2, "trend": 21.094833, "fair_value": 13.450154, "relative_strength": -11.576131, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.703896, "energy": 79.463013, "activity_lines": [ 18.657333, 20.061454, 21.605619, 21.60886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.84, "volume": 5425905, "typical_volume": 3568985.9, "trend": 21.0495, "fair_value": 13.470378, "relative_strength": -19.365722, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -57.862864, "energy": 84.161493, "activity_lines": [ 17.859333, 19.266, 21.084095, 21.334355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.82, "volume": 4052708, "typical_volume": 3478536.35, "trend": 20.9825, "fair_value": 13.484513, "relative_strength": -25.735137, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -60.662761, "energy": 85.31682, "activity_lines": [ 17.032, 18.418, 20.484571, 20.996968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }