{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daff1327-0e25-43cc-ba86-171548f06eb3", "symbol": "UIX", "name": "China Environmental Resources Group Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.178, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.446, "architecture_energy": 39.426, "architecture_maturity": 15.551, "architecture_confidence": 57.63, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.45, "rotation_up": 63.5, "upward_expansion": 45.34, "deceleration": 49.33, "rotation_down": 21.38, "downward_expansion": 15.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.091, 0.088382, 0.088014, 0.087772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.09, "trend_reference": 0.088133, "distance_from_trend": 0.02118, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.060955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.476496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.534503, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.139241, "excess_performance": -0.015595, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02118, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006088, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.476496, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.125345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075847, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64239, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.64239, "dry_up": 0.499635, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04188, "annualized_volatility": 0.456581, "from_high_reference": -0.352518, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.088133, "fair_value_reference": 0.060955, "structural_low": 0.079, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.011111, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.022642, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018644, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137931, "worst_return": -0.151515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006683, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.6, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.921429, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.833555, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.7, "worst_return": 0.142857, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 2.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.161616, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.496403, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012195, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.160494, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.148936, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.035, "volume": 240200, "typical_volume": 256008.0, "trend": 0.0325, "fair_value": 0.050897, "relative_strength": 1.295316, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.631536, "energy": 10.859354, "activity_lines": [ 0.032667, 0.032818, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -1.539737, "energy": 7.255287, "activity_lines": [ 0.086, 0.085527, 0.086986, 0.086976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.095, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 41425.0, "trend": 0.087533, "fair_value": 0.060218, "relative_strength": -6.767939, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.069096, "energy": 26.635014, "activity_lines": [ 0.089333, 0.087182, 0.087705, 0.087473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.09, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": 43395.0, "trend": 0.087833, "fair_value": 0.060571, "relative_strength": -11.979253, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.873784, "energy": 28.162108, "activity_lines": [ 0.090333, 0.0878, 0.087881, 0.087632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 20565.0, "trend": 0.088133, "fair_value": 0.060955, "relative_strength": -12.534503, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.446159, "energy": 39.425716, "activity_lines": [ 0.091, 0.088382, 0.088014, 0.087772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }