{ "ticker": { "uuid": "daff730f-a04d-4fb0-b639-df357f7950c9", "symbol": "HUTL", "name": "Harvest Utilities Leaders Income ETF CAD Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.473, "architecture_energy": 12.733, "architecture_maturity": 32.563, "architecture_confidence": 68.52, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.46, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 14.48, "deceleration": 53.9, "rotation_down": 42.43, "downward_expansion": 42.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.384415, 19.425466, 19.508167, 19.529953 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.280001, "trend_reference": 19.441285, "distance_from_trend": -0.008296, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.081637, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.256691, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.013277, "excess_performance": -0.107144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030812, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045089, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.082567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013277, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.515832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 242400, "relative_activity": 1.229427, "balance": 0.515832, "dry_up": 1.298785, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025043, "annualized_volatility": 0.119707, "from_high_reference": -0.049794, "from_low_reference": 0.123162 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.441285, "fair_value_reference": 16.081637, "structural_low": 18.881227, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.009472, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.005371, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.059446, "worst_return": -0.079615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.060516, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.000893, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.100259, "worst_return": -0.054971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.059494, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.018695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144765, "worst_return": 0.003196, "sufficient": true }, { 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19.529374, 19.570159, 19.523474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.549269, "volume": 270500, "typical_volume": 195115.0, "trend": 19.344872, "fair_value": 15.999996, "relative_strength": -4.902423, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.141669, "energy": 8.637145, "activity_lines": [ 19.491558, 19.523089, 19.564775, 19.540726 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.290001, "volume": 309600, "typical_volume": 201310.0, "trend": 19.392116, "fair_value": 16.041584, "relative_strength": -5.496595, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.76072, "energy": 7.31022, "activity_lines": [ 19.431059, 19.467887, 19.535693, 19.537186 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.280001, "volume": 242400, "typical_volume": 197165.0, "trend": 19.441285, "fair_value": 16.081637, "relative_strength": -8.256691, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.473297, "energy": 12.733346, "activity_lines": [ 19.384415, 19.425466, 19.508167, 19.529953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }