{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db024b06-53aa-4966-980b-2a65878dfe3d", "symbol": "1512", "name": "Jui Li Enterprise Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.406, "architecture_energy": 45.923, "architecture_maturity": 34.592, "architecture_confidence": 92.798, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.82, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 8.21, "deceleration": 42.97, "rotation_down": 58.57, "downward_expansion": 83.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.704667, 6.808909, 6.922762, 7.071957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.7, "trend_reference": 7.301667, "distance_from_trend": -0.082401, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.676538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227803, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.684323, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.139923, "excess_performance": -0.581295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082401, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227803, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019149, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038037, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.139923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.020275, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 314538, "relative_activity": 0.661302, "balance": 1.020275, "dry_up": 0.659272, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071986, "annualized_volatility": 0.273864, "from_high_reference": -0.286475, "from_low_reference": 0.030769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.301667, "fair_value_reference": 8.676538, "structural_low": 6.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.019048, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.675676, "median_excess_return": -0.041498, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.473016, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.048193, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.115277, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.41746, "worst_return": -0.211823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.083117, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.153603, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.25873, "worst_return": -0.324895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.078195, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.095649, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.289161, "worst_return": -0.387402, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2023-03-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021628, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-03-31", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003717, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.448837, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108883, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131746, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16097, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.75, "volume": 522026, "typical_volume": 590660.2, "trend": 7.404667, "fair_value": 8.845769, "relative_strength": -36.872131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.236525, "energy": 33.30884, "activity_lines": [ 6.954, 6.965273, 7.092429, 7.237161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.89, "volume": 237959, "typical_volume": 574189.75, "trend": 7.381, "fair_value": 8.801154, "relative_strength": -35.912558, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.585338, "energy": 28.020917, "activity_lines": [ 6.917333, 6.952, 7.060571, 7.203957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.7, "volume": 296289, "typical_volume": 506375.95, "trend": 7.351333, "fair_value": 8.760449, "relative_strength": -35.840853, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.707458, "energy": 39.243758, "activity_lines": [ 6.841333, 6.905455, 7.012143, 7.160022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.61, "volume": 405504, "typical_volume": 479385.65, "trend": 7.323667, "fair_value": 8.716282, "relative_strength": -37.320019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.784793, "energy": 49.94979, "activity_lines": [ 6.74, 6.847818, 6.960571, 7.112194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6.7, "volume": 314538, "typical_volume": 475634.45, "trend": 7.301667, "fair_value": 8.676538, "relative_strength": -37.684323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.405944, "energy": 45.922624, "activity_lines": [ 6.704667, 6.808909, 6.922762, 7.071957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }