{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db026bf4-62ec-4ec8-8a14-da1648a87c0d", "symbol": "MELI34", "name": "MercadoLibre, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 79.68, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.961, "architecture_energy": 35.337, "architecture_maturity": 2.177, "architecture_confidence": 61.954, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.53, "rotation_up": 59.85, "upward_expansion": 43.22, "deceleration": 23.74, "rotation_down": 16.01, "downward_expansion": 24.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.514, 76.157818, 73.814047, 74.15486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 76.459999, "trend_reference": 76.629666, "distance_from_trend": -0.002214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 83.957244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.089298, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.726863, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.109999, "excess_performance": -0.052951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002214, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072007, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.089298, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097265, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157269, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.265749, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109999, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.824192, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4148983, "relative_activity": 1.721315, "balance": 0.824192, "dry_up": 1.018221, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05987, "annualized_volatility": 0.353985, "from_high_reference": -0.323363, "from_low_reference": 0.246292 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.629666, "fair_value_reference": 83.957244, "structural_low": 61.349998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.10076, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.090847, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.030812, "worst_return": -0.165267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089283, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.008874, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.099822, "worst_return": -0.113921, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.06211, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205755, "worst_return": -0.406223, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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2.403731, "energy": 26.615398, "activity_lines": [ 77.136668, 74.511818, 72.848048, 74.131699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.87, "volume": 2141282, "typical_volume": 2347155.0, "trend": 77.299333, "fair_value": 83.816987, "relative_strength": -16.769564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.742039, "energy": 42.580079, "activity_lines": [ 77.966001, 75.643636, 73.458381, 74.209011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.459999, "volume": 4148983, "typical_volume": 2410356.55, "trend": 76.629666, "fair_value": 83.957244, "relative_strength": -15.726863, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.961367, "energy": 35.336795, "activity_lines": [ 77.514, 76.157818, 73.814047, 74.15486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }