{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db031958-bafe-451b-8d0b-02fc32ce8f8f", "symbol": "2610", "name": "China Airlines, Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.467, "architecture_energy": 36.001, "architecture_maturity": 32.934, "architecture_confidence": 42.889, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.24, "rotation_up": 42.35, "upward_expansion": 73.36, "deceleration": 73.47, "rotation_down": 23.39, "downward_expansion": 4.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.23, 21.223544, 20.348432, 19.837804 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.9, "trend_reference": 19.626674, "distance_from_trend": 0.013926, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.082408, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.009083, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.042855, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.086652, "excess_performance": -0.528024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013926, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039918, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.009083, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10835, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.280429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114776, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086652, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.446813, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 285522274, "relative_activity": 1.307124, "balance": 3.446813, "dry_up": 1.062384, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081254, "annualized_volatility": 0.343266, "from_high_reference": -0.164148, "from_low_reference": 0.168776 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.626674, "fair_value_reference": 20.082408, "structural_low": 17.02636, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.029968, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.025022, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.164927, "worst_return": -0.111905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.03351, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.017416, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.061798, "worst_return": -0.099083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.058449, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.111906, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.403846, "worst_return": -0.171103, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": 36.98134, "energy": 46.483497, "activity_lines": [ 21.130952, 20.599703, 19.486957, 19.361662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.5, "volume": 168165959, "typical_volume": 205842645.9, "trend": 19.414605, "fair_value": 20.104464, "relative_strength": -24.814376, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.846714, "energy": 42.495436, "activity_lines": [ 20.863814, 20.702714, 19.648199, 19.43471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.4, "volume": 315442637, "typical_volume": 210011134.15, "trend": 19.518374, "fair_value": 20.101279, "relative_strength": -15.933173, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.211163, "energy": 47.196625, "activity_lines": [ 21.274191, 21.102015, 19.979349, 19.627316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.5, "volume": 159119185, "typical_volume": 209939624.85, "trend": 19.619064, "fair_value": 20.098735, "relative_strength": -16.797713, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.669568, "energy": 51.002223, "activity_lines": [ 21.71237, 21.436661, 20.298098, 19.819679 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.9, "volume": 285522274, "typical_volume": 218435523.65, "trend": 19.626674, "fair_value": 20.082408, "relative_strength": -28.042855, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.467347, "energy": 36.001478, "activity_lines": [ 21.23, 21.223544, 20.348432, 19.837804 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }