{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db0a93a0-5f39-4ce1-ae33-cdbb44d8ce21", "symbol": "KNOP", "name": "KNOT Offshore Partners LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 10.624, "architecture_energy": 6.748, "architecture_maturity": 21.49, "architecture_confidence": 60.017, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.17, "rotation_up": 37.31, "upward_expansion": 34.88, "deceleration": 44.29, "rotation_down": 32.5, "downward_expansion": 22.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.508536, 10.400278, 10.520072, 10.479657 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.58, "trend_reference": 10.443435, "distance_from_trend": 0.013077, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.313452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.446649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.784173, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022997, "excess_performance": -0.102628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013077, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005928, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.446649, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157446, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022997, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 230434, "relative_activity": 0.515866, "balance": 0.740968, "dry_up": 0.551473, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070456, "annualized_volatility": 0.341863, "from_high_reference": -0.101868, "from_low_reference": 0.548608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.443435, "fair_value_reference": 7.313452, "structural_low": 8.731613, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.029658, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.020976, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.235075, "worst_return": -0.224382, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.061337, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014967, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162207, "worst_return": -0.381678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.099004, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.120044, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.219699, "worst_return": -0.609147, 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085015, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011609, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.147738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006061, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.637537, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042017, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067892, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.936437, "volume": 317058, "typical_volume": 787070.25, "trend": 5.114527, "fair_value": 11.652246, "relative_strength": -44.068411, "stage": 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balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.141168, "energy": 17.316172, "activity_lines": [ 10.274647, 10.481481, 10.52317, 10.479374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.1754, "volume": 204456, "typical_volume": 493564.95, "trend": 10.429853, "fair_value": 7.211626, "relative_strength": -3.586075, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.717505, "energy": 19.162473, "activity_lines": [ 10.228691, 10.394347, 10.496049, 10.462334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.205182, "volume": 269405, "typical_volume": 486466.1, "trend": 10.418865, "fair_value": 7.242395, "relative_strength": -3.105604, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.546989, "energy": 13.606486, "activity_lines": [ 10.234302, 10.329076, 10.473982, 10.447839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.77, "volume": 281062, "typical_volume": 484164.9, "trend": 10.437958, "fair_value": 7.278502, "relative_strength": 0.707795, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.549986, "energy": 8.178471, "activity_lines": [ 10.43184, 10.375677, 10.507638, 10.470493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.58, "volume": 230434, "typical_volume": 446693.55, "trend": 10.443435, "fair_value": 7.313452, "relative_strength": -4.784173, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.624011, "energy": 6.748016, "activity_lines": [ 10.508536, 10.400278, 10.520072, 10.479657 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }