{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db0e535d-99df-45e2-bcdd-af9ca5f05ae1", "symbol": "QTCOM", "name": "Qt Group Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.83, "architecture_energy": 65.574, "architecture_maturity": 42.963, "architecture_confidence": 71.43, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.93, "rotation_up": 64.72, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 17.15, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.322666, 33.404363, 30.155428, 27.966559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.599998, "trend_reference": 25.243333, "distance_from_trend": 0.29143, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.486282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.422869, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.194436, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.743315, "excess_performance": 0.61974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.29143, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028884, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.422869, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190098, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011944, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.441129, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.743315, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.749438, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 249841, "relative_activity": 0.756003, "balance": 0.749438, "dry_up": 0.92311, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075555, "annualized_volatility": 0.659267, "from_high_reference": -0.329218, "from_low_reference": 0.807095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.243333, "fair_value_reference": 56.486282, "structural_low": 18.040001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.04183, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.014471, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.38704, "worst_return": -0.17226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.099113, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.094608, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.222417, "worst_return": -0.304125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.096993, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.067374, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.139793, "worst_return": -0.204742, "sufficient": false }, { 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"trend": 24.026667, "fair_value": 56.980128, "relative_strength": 3.755271, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.633179, "energy": 94.891677, "activity_lines": [ 32.353334, 29.039637, 26.859476, 25.305398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 37.200001, "volume": 331564, "typical_volume": 420302.0, "trend": 24.381333, "fair_value": 56.853077, "relative_strength": 10.997962, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.600752, "energy": 95.873214, "activity_lines": [ 34.696, 30.913091, 28.025572, 26.15529 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 35.419998, "volume": 418650, "typical_volume": 396471.15, "trend": 24.693333, "fair_value": 56.732179, "relative_strength": 8.225297, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.460493, "energy": 88.677571, "activity_lines": [ 35.517333, 32.203273, 28.933571, 26.867462 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 34.119999, "volume": 220209, "typical_volume": 342018.25, "trend": 24.990667, "fair_value": 56.611282, "relative_strength": 4.413959, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.916124, "energy": 87.323434, "activity_lines": [ 35.214666, 33.039272, 29.653286, 27.475634 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 32.599998, "volume": 249841, "typical_volume": 330476.3, "trend": 25.243333, "fair_value": 56.486282, "relative_strength": 1.194436, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.830237, "energy": 65.573775, "activity_lines": [ 34.322666, 33.404363, 30.155428, 27.966559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }