{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db122360-e5ab-48a1-ac70-9d0d7093be94", "symbol": "002112", "name": "Sanbian Sci Tech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.34, "architecture_energy": 50.44, "architecture_maturity": 41.507, "architecture_confidence": 91.537, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.47, "rotation_up": 22.84, "upward_expansion": 7.86, "deceleration": 58.74, "rotation_down": 55.25, "downward_expansion": 81.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.578, 15.794001, 17.064748, 18.371567 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.09, "trend_reference": 19.719372, "distance_from_trend": -0.184051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.905705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.246735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.048865, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181587, "excess_performance": -0.188987, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042799, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.246735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.444519, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.080489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156618, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181587, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.503863, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 178933634, "relative_activity": 1.863462, "balance": 0.503863, "dry_up": 1.301874, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12054, "annualized_volatility": 0.564739, "from_high_reference": -0.436427, "from_low_reference": 0.297581 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.719372, "fair_value_reference": 12.905705, "structural_low": 12.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.036188, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.038362, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.459169, "worst_return": -0.032689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.072015, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.069062, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.493125, "worst_return": -0.102513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.115234, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.038756, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.493964, "worst_return": -0.091557, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -16.449643, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.892905, "energy": 81.542162, "activity_lines": [ 16.301338, 17.079794, 18.612247, 19.468803 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.76, "volume": 42704314, "typical_volume": 120949447.65, "trend": 19.485705, "fair_value": 12.831753, "relative_strength": -18.193024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.543227, "energy": 91.210647, "activity_lines": [ 15.373991, 16.318442, 18.006574, 19.099725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.87, "volume": 99734420, "typical_volume": 107934528.6, "trend": 19.535705, "fair_value": 12.853302, "relative_strength": -11.816393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.798369, "energy": 82.42608, "activity_lines": [ 15.014667, 15.890143, 17.558759, 18.801938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.4, "volume": 178662676, "typical_volume": 96273257.4, "trend": 19.625038, "fair_value": 12.875764, "relative_strength": -1.357423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.914716, "energy": 57.599789, "activity_lines": [ 15.344667, 15.844718, 17.305468, 18.599634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.09, "volume": 178933634, "typical_volume": 96022140.7, "trend": 19.719372, "fair_value": 12.905705, "relative_strength": -8.048865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.340043, "energy": 50.439833, "activity_lines": [ 15.578, 15.794001, 17.064748, 18.371567 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }