{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db1397a9-9e10-4a7d-9d14-0e215019a270", "symbol": "MC", "name": "Moelis & Co", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.709, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.999, "architecture_energy": 23.913, "architecture_maturity": 14.622, "architecture_confidence": 66.104, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.64, "rotation_up": 44.74, "upward_expansion": 75.26, "deceleration": 56.56, "rotation_down": 23.3, "downward_expansion": 4.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.749333, 66.664727, 66.243388, 64.883454 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 66.63, "trend_reference": 64.515377, "distance_from_trend": 0.032777, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.869391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.799065, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.071636, "excess_performance": -0.197261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032777, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001092, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006525, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097991, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012496, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071636, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.823467, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4370364, "relative_activity": 0.895829, "balance": 0.823467, "dry_up": 0.984741, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082211, "annualized_volatility": 0.360098, "from_high_reference": -0.130581, "from_low_reference": 0.31822 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.515377, "fair_value_reference": 58.869391, "structural_low": 50.545442, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.018723, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.006627, "regime_survival": 0.266667, "best_return": 0.258839, "worst_return": -0.176606, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.068679, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02027, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38436, "worst_return": -0.250411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.2238, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.111042, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.353289, "worst_return": -0.009395, "sufficient": true }, { 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"2026-07-31", "close": 67.08, "volume": 7593152, "typical_volume": 5292094.7, "trend": 64.730196, "fair_value": 58.71625, "relative_strength": -6.408085, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.745632, "energy": 21.820002, "activity_lines": [ 66.798667, 66.702909, 66.021488, 64.760886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.63, "volume": 4370364, "typical_volume": 4878567.1, "trend": 64.515377, "fair_value": 58.869391, "relative_strength": -9.799065, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.998654, "energy": 23.912676, "activity_lines": [ 66.749333, 66.664727, 66.243388, 64.883454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }