{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db289273-faa8-4147-889e-327528904eeb", "symbol": "000420", "name": "Jilin Chemical Fibre Stock Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.887, "architecture_energy": 77.798, "architecture_maturity": 21.289, "architecture_confidence": 95.543, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.31, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 18.86, "deceleration": 38.13, "rotation_down": 68.91, "downward_expansion": 92.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.706, 3.826182, 4.186476, 4.354344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.77, "trend_reference": 4.521, "distance_from_trend": -0.166114, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.752564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.004646, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.595736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.217842, "excess_performance": -0.225242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166114, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009783, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.004646, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.474473, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191176, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.217842, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285742, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 218818253, "relative_activity": 0.562238, "balance": 0.285742, "dry_up": 0.61187, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088349, "annualized_volatility": 0.427649, "from_high_reference": -0.357751, "from_low_reference": 0.080229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.521, "fair_value_reference": 3.752564, "structural_low": 3.49, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.003289, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.000109, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.371681, "worst_return": -0.165025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.184729, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.075094, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.285714, "worst_return": -0.175487, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098701, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.064532, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.33557, "worst_return": -0.279805, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064302, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.098701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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79.779093, "activity_lines": [ 4.018667, 4.230727, 4.527143, 4.585828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.57, "volume": 262357752, "typical_volume": 523611835.75, "trend": 4.578333, "fair_value": 3.750962, "relative_strength": -19.099293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.152457, "energy": 85.06608, "activity_lines": [ 3.847333, 4.066364, 4.424857, 4.519914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.58, "volume": 265022245, "typical_volume": 515811947.65, "trend": 4.561667, "fair_value": 3.750385, "relative_strength": -18.673972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.961542, "energy": 85.350285, "activity_lines": [ 3.723333, 3.938727, 4.329, 4.455505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.77, "volume": 206340107, "typical_volume": 479028772.3, "trend": 4.546333, "fair_value": 3.751538, "relative_strength": -12.648135, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.361588, "energy": 79.971475, "activity_lines": [ 3.706, 3.873091, 4.255238, 4.40443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.77, "volume": 218818253, "typical_volume": 389191440.25, "trend": 4.521, "fair_value": 3.752564, "relative_strength": -16.595736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.887113, "energy": 77.797815, "activity_lines": [ 3.706, 3.826182, 4.186476, 4.354344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }