{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db29aa2b-d482-4579-a168-33a8e9531f1b", "symbol": "HPHA", "name": "Heidelberg Pharma AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.275, "architecture_energy": 47.686, "architecture_maturity": 30.249, "architecture_confidence": 87.664, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.86, "rotation_up": 17.22, "upward_expansion": 5.72, "deceleration": 49.9, "rotation_down": 61.28, "downward_expansion": 79.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.528, 2.562909, 2.62881, 2.702151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.47, "trend_reference": 2.796, "distance_from_trend": -0.116595, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.982949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.17196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.580625, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136364, "excess_performance": -0.201003, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116595, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026688, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.17196, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225806, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035412, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136364, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.354059, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14890, "relative_activity": 1.443718, "balance": 0.354059, "dry_up": 1.702477, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067269, "annualized_volatility": 0.26136, "from_high_reference": -0.467672, "from_low_reference": 0.060086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.796, "fair_value_reference": 2.982949, "structural_low": 2.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.034595, "positive_rate": 0.305556, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033618, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.160204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.096674, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.121404, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.196602, "worst_return": -0.225806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.106727, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.214381, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.364078, "worst_return": -0.395894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.18455, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.255807, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.208494, "worst_return": -0.342213, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-01-27", "end": "2023-02-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.425887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064815, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.135922, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12549, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.583333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", 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2.733619, 2.787806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.66, "volume": 3063, "typical_volume": 13238.6, "trend": 2.810333, "fair_value": 3.011474, "relative_strength": -16.651859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.20977, "energy": 50.092842, "activity_lines": [ 2.630667, 2.650364, 2.718857, 2.777785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.46, "volume": 37762, "typical_volume": 14741.25, "trend": 2.811667, "fair_value": 3.003269, "relative_strength": -21.258443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.047112, "energy": 50.110088, "activity_lines": [ 2.578, 2.610909, 2.68681, 2.755183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.65, "volume": 15759, "typical_volume": 14591.55, "trend": 2.82, "fair_value": 2.99641, "relative_strength": -15.056936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.241627, "energy": 38.726327, "activity_lines": [ 2.596667, 2.610909, 2.675476, 2.744753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.51, "volume": 1824, "typical_volume": 10335.1, "trend": 2.820333, "fair_value": 2.989679, "relative_strength": -20.210011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.457571, "energy": 43.885842, "activity_lines": [ 2.564, 2.588, 2.65281, 2.724753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.47, "volume": 14890, "typical_volume": 10313.65, "trend": 2.796, "fair_value": 2.982949, "relative_strength": -22.580625, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.275058, "energy": 47.685881, "activity_lines": [ 2.528, 2.562909, 2.62881, 2.702151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }