{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db2be1e8-d525-4ae9-b95d-11aebe207ee5", "symbol": "XDWC", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Discretionary UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 79.621, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.889, "architecture_energy": 29.488, "architecture_maturity": 20.193, "architecture_confidence": 68.492, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.09, "rotation_up": 52.36, "upward_expansion": 68.78, "deceleration": 44.9, "rotation_down": 19.59, "downward_expansion": 16.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 68.167334, 67.776637, 67.894977, 67.428334 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 70.82, "trend_reference": 67.293333, "distance_from_trend": 0.052407, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 60.536508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.997017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057646, "excess_performance": 0.006411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052407, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013501, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023101, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.145647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37590, "relative_activity": 1.767955, "balance": 1.145647, "dry_up": 1.566291, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033574, "annualized_volatility": 0.216879, "from_high_reference": -0.026262, "from_low_reference": 0.173488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.293333, "fair_value_reference": 60.536508, "structural_low": 60.349998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008247, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014632, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.122354, "worst_return": -0.11631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.035204, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.019757, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.124888, "worst_return": -0.085374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.054438, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.108484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117082, "worst_return": -0.069252, 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"energy": 25.534629, "activity_lines": [ 66.607668, 67.099001, 67.402929, 67.157355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 68.07, "volume": 11485, "typical_volume": 20867.65, "trend": 67.326666, "fair_value": 60.405674, "relative_strength": -7.620595, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.595771, "energy": 7.157533, "activity_lines": [ 66.984668, 67.177456, 67.528739, 67.202957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 70.82, "volume": 37590, "typical_volume": 21261.85, "trend": 67.293333, "fair_value": 60.536508, "relative_strength": -3.997017, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.888716, "energy": 29.487554, "activity_lines": [ 68.167334, 67.776637, 67.894977, 67.428334 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }