{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db3202dd-7416-45f8-9a47-8d18a56dc92f", "symbol": "AMUND", "name": "Almunda Professionals N.V.", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.558, "architecture_energy": 45.15, "architecture_maturity": 24.593, "architecture_confidence": 84.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.43, "rotation_up": 16.47, "upward_expansion": 4.74, "deceleration": 56.45, "rotation_down": 58.34, "downward_expansion": 75.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.990667, 1.002909, 1.036801, 1.049215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.93, "trend_reference": 1.058241, "distance_from_trend": -0.121183, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.104554, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.158031, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.39936, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.07, "excess_performance": -0.189475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121183, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01152, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.158031, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203994, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.07, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8939, "relative_activity": 8.77534, "balance": 0.805754, "dry_up": 4.517744, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072374, "annualized_volatility": 0.398274, "from_high_reference": -0.218487, "from_low_reference": 0.141104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.058241, "fair_value_reference": 1.104554, "structural_low": 0.815, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.007266, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.063063, "worst_return": -0.037037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013325, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.00532, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.112069, "worst_return": -0.035398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.021515, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046062, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.090539, "worst_return": -0.015251, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042017, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122642, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.070667, 1.081455, 1.085112, 1.079453 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 0.96, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 483.95, "trend": 1.068908, "fair_value": 1.10884, "relative_strength": -19.608242, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.857197, "energy": 60.505884, "activity_lines": [ 1.026, 1.056545, 1.073696, 1.072276 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 1.03, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 264.35, "trend": 1.068908, "fair_value": 1.107376, "relative_strength": -13.23781, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.72279, "energy": 52.597545, "activity_lines": [ 1.016667, 1.048545, 1.069138, 1.069766 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 1.02, "volume": 30, "typical_volume": 107.4, "trend": 1.066574, "fair_value": 1.106892, "relative_strength": -12.342568, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.768148, "energy": 56.854559, "activity_lines": [ 1.010667, 1.041636, 1.063961, 1.066611 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 1.0, "volume": 879, "typical_volume": 151.35, "trend": 1.064907, "fair_value": 1.106048, "relative_strength": -13.212712, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.178893, "energy": 71.513623, "activity_lines": [ 1.004667, 1.031273, 1.057086, 1.062316 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 1.05, "volume": 8138, "typical_volume": 558.25, "trend": 1.064907, "fair_value": 1.105524, "relative_strength": -9.73179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.774811, "energy": 31.07072, "activity_lines": [ 1.022, 1.030727, 1.055276, 1.061354 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-02", "close": 1.01, "volume": 452, "typical_volume": 580.85, "trend": 1.063241, "fair_value": 1.105324, "relative_strength": -13.080436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.124589, "energy": 34.06087, "activity_lines": [ 1.021333, 1.022909, 1.04972, 1.057811 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 0.93, "volume": 8939, "typical_volume": 1018.65, "trend": 1.058241, "fair_value": 1.104554, "relative_strength": -20.39936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.558041, "energy": 45.149804, "activity_lines": [ 0.990667, 1.002909, 1.036801, 1.049215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }