{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db41383f-4af5-43b8-8172-71f8e3251c00", "symbol": "GXLD", "name": "Global X Gold Bullion ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.398, "architecture_energy": 53.999, "architecture_maturity": 66.74, "architecture_confidence": 91.515, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.87, "rotation_up": 27.64, "upward_expansion": 9.16, "deceleration": 60.8, "rotation_down": 51.52, "downward_expansion": 82.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.658666, 58.70109, 60.338666, 62.286387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 60.68, "trend_reference": 64.962667, "distance_from_trend": -0.065925, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.906471, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.606067, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.123755, "excess_performance": -0.18746, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065925, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169026, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112508, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086061, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158217, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.123755, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.291981, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97686, "relative_activity": 0.815876, "balance": 0.291981, "dry_up": 1.186477, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035609, "annualized_volatility": 0.208635, "from_high_reference": -0.233064, "from_low_reference": 0.189571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.962667, "fair_value_reference": 51.906471, "structural_low": 56.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.012624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013471, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.027952, "worst_return": -0.002703, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.099772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04613, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025173, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-03", "close": 35.18, "volume": 715, "typical_volume": 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-72.031824, "energy": 65.748542, "activity_lines": [ 58.018666, 58.806727, 60.990667, 63.068774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.759998, "volume": 97199, "typical_volume": 120722.4, "trend": 65.158334, "fair_value": 51.832119, "relative_strength": -10.070661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.300957, "energy": 64.426611, "activity_lines": [ 57.841998, 58.439817, 60.491428, 62.575312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.68, "volume": 97686, "typical_volume": 119731.4, "trend": 64.962667, "fair_value": 51.906471, "relative_strength": -8.606067, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.397578, "energy": 53.998522, "activity_lines": [ 58.658666, 58.70109, 60.338666, 62.286387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }