{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db45d758-8354-41ef-b782-84c0c72e1136", "symbol": "SAWS", "name": "AAM SAWGRASS US SMALL CAP QUALITY GROWTH ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.878, "architecture_energy": 29.465, "architecture_maturity": 63.625, "architecture_confidence": 85.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.95, "rotation_up": 24.84, "upward_expansion": 60.61, "deceleration": 93.96, "rotation_down": 27.67, "downward_expansion": 17.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.574887, 24.755635, 24.343281, 23.816611 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.5762, "trend_reference": 23.233123, "distance_from_trend": 0.057809, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.85271, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178561, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.49797, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073675, "excess_performance": -0.05195, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057809, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055127, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178561, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011563, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018694, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.473723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92469, "relative_activity": 9.204605, "balance": 3.473723, "dry_up": 3.140196, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029331, "annualized_volatility": 0.16806, "from_high_reference": -0.056576, "from_low_reference": 0.243185 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.233123, "fair_value_reference": 20.85271, "structural_low": 20.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.0564, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011505, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120153, "worst_return": -0.007353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.211115, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.056816, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.211115, "worst_return": 0.211115, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"2026-07-10", "close": 24.9509, "volume": 6434, "typical_volume": 5033.1, "trend": 22.83468, "fair_value": 20.707686, "relative_strength": 2.795591, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.351883, "energy": 86.396147, "activity_lines": [ 25.18296, 24.654871, 23.898797, 23.413143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.5328, "volume": 19593, "typical_volume": 5909.35, "trend": 22.935435, "fair_value": 20.744823, "relative_strength": 2.544594, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.864144, "energy": 71.239551, "activity_lines": [ 24.97958, 24.706822, 24.026916, 23.522699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.6514, "volume": 7778, "typical_volume": 5744.15, "trend": 23.034907, "fair_value": 20.782386, "relative_strength": 3.500313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.929951, "energy": 50.903989, "activity_lines": [ 24.8221, 24.766285, 24.157318, 23.633407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.4429, "volume": 6345, "typical_volume": 5915.8, "trend": 23.14453, "fair_value": 20.817248, "relative_strength": 1.423142, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.220414, "energy": 36.506117, "activity_lines": [ 24.63004, 24.759873, 24.252186, 23.724245 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.5762, "volume": 92469, "typical_volume": 10045.95, "trend": 23.233123, "fair_value": 20.85271, "relative_strength": -1.49797, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.877887, "energy": 29.465127, "activity_lines": [ 24.574887, 24.755635, 24.343281, 23.816611 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }