{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db4b5a3f-5530-4df3-92cc-3adeb0c00f79", "symbol": "KBX", "name": "Knorr-Bremse AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.544, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.743, "architecture_energy": 15.673, "architecture_maturity": 47.575, "architecture_confidence": 46.571, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.27, "rotation_up": 35.39, "upward_expansion": 59.34, "deceleration": 60.16, "rotation_down": 22.31, "downward_expansion": 14.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 103.193334, 103.36, 102.591558, 102.079101 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 101.900002, "trend_reference": 101.618875, "distance_from_trend": 0.002766, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 77.321751, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31787, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.391896, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02722, "excess_performance": -0.09186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002766, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31787, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07628, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.003919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135028, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02722, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58812, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 722631, "relative_activity": 1.024682, "balance": 0.58812, "dry_up": 1.275779, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058315, "annualized_volatility": 0.317011, "from_high_reference": -0.101273, "from_low_reference": 0.342285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 101.618875, "fair_value_reference": 77.321751, "structural_low": 90.921808, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025283, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.002963, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.064211, "worst_return": -0.044369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104383, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.000302, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.168159, "worst_return": 0.050677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00457, "worst_return": -0.021739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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738312, "typical_volume": 714473.1, "trend": 100.708862, "fair_value": 76.485568, "relative_strength": 7.516545, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.617225, "energy": 26.065028, "activity_lines": [ 103.433332, 102.898181, 101.814825, 101.577625 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 106.300003, "volume": 651390, "typical_volume": 686822.65, "trend": 101.164254, "fair_value": 76.782807, "relative_strength": 9.277085, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.815887, "energy": 44.561941, "activity_lines": [ 104.413333, 103.595454, 102.342949, 101.938343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.9, "volume": 1486509, "typical_volume": 718851.9, "trend": 101.454002, "fair_value": 77.060417, "relative_strength": 3.358368, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.234596, "energy": 21.241169, "activity_lines": [ 104.08, 103.598182, 102.52868, 102.050327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.900002, "volume": 722631, "typical_volume": 705224.55, "trend": 101.618875, "fair_value": 77.321751, "relative_strength": -0.391896, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.743411, "energy": 15.673074, "activity_lines": [ 103.193334, 103.36, 102.591558, 102.079101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }