{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db4bda81-d81b-491f-b716-54b1c8744d12", "symbol": "ECNS", "name": "ISHARES TRUST MSCI CHINA SMALL-CAP ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.278, "architecture_energy": 47.886, "architecture_maturity": 73.474, "architecture_confidence": 68.011, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.29, "rotation_up": 26.61, "upward_expansion": 19.62, "deceleration": 66.71, "rotation_down": 48.11, "downward_expansion": 71.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.857333, 28.795622, 29.822437, 30.737903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 29.49, "trend_reference": 31.998795, "distance_from_trend": -0.078403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.671283, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.910442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.152717, "excess_performance": -0.278342, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.078403, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04276, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176845, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114869, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.664697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90222, "relative_activity": 1.219186, "balance": 0.664697, "dry_up": 0.662534, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039387, "annualized_volatility": 0.192867, "from_high_reference": -0.219873, "from_low_reference": 0.055854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.998795, "fair_value_reference": 26.671283, 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28.708599, 29.458386, 30.802496, 31.680913 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.2, "volume": 39495, "typical_volume": 95976.95, "trend": 32.43859, "fair_value": 26.610425, "relative_strength": -22.675189, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.905453, "energy": 85.451666, "activity_lines": [ 28.444533, 29.077755, 30.466039, 31.397425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.29, "volume": 28101, "typical_volume": 80232.15, "trend": 32.279223, "fair_value": 26.620638, "relative_strength": -21.518231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.364906, "energy": 74.704358, "activity_lines": [ 28.346, 28.814047, 30.172377, 31.129774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.86, "volume": 38297, "typical_volume": 75903.4, "trend": 32.144769, "fair_value": 26.639459, "relative_strength": -20.37381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.225016, "energy": 60.098839, "activity_lines": [ 28.521333, 28.72639, 29.956706, 30.909179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.49, "volume": 90222, "typical_volume": 74001.85, "trend": 31.998795, "fair_value": 26.671283, "relative_strength": -20.910442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.278496, "energy": 47.886259, "activity_lines": [ 28.857333, 28.795622, 29.822437, 30.737903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }