{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db5174f6-64b7-446a-b629-101b9eb874f1", "symbol": "CX", "name": "CombinedX AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.948, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.182, "architecture_energy": 35.21, "architecture_maturity": 38.195, "architecture_confidence": 60.77, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.36, "rotation_up": 14.37, "upward_expansion": 17.96, "deceleration": 59.26, "rotation_down": 60.08, "downward_expansion": 40.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.373334, 34.238182, 35.238371, 34.766821 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.900002, "trend_reference": 34.41419, "distance_from_trend": -0.014941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.479019, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044506, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.846336, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.063112, "excess_performance": -0.124606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014941, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002788, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044506, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127708, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0871, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063112, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698079, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30230, "relative_activity": 0.552854, "balance": 0.698079, "dry_up": 1.143171, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062174, "annualized_volatility": 0.428875, "from_high_reference": -0.141772, "from_low_reference": 0.244723 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.41419, "fair_value_reference": 35.479019, "structural_low": 27.234972, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0037, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.18493, "worst_return": -0.17551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.058323, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072764, "worst_return": -0.189409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.174363, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.23005, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010641, "worst_return": -0.338086, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"volume": 35905, "typical_volume": 51861.35, "trend": 34.764189, "fair_value": 35.353666, "relative_strength": -8.112056, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.241658, "energy": 24.226505, "activity_lines": [ 35.96, 36.601818, 35.899498, 35.189331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.200001, "volume": 125569, "typical_volume": 56082.1, "trend": 34.667067, "fair_value": 35.387814, "relative_strength": -14.572619, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.043977, "energy": 24.301418, "activity_lines": [ 34.64, 35.710909, 35.669615, 35.023899 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.700001, "volume": 48575, "typical_volume": 53267.8, "trend": 34.54031, "fair_value": 35.405506, "relative_strength": -16.641846, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.065031, "energy": 42.646484, "activity_lines": [ 33.453334, 34.832728, 35.392092, 34.832476 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.099998, "volume": 45660, "typical_volume": 53874.05, "trend": 34.477341, "fair_value": 35.440311, "relative_strength": -11.121203, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.497434, "energy": 32.781553, "activity_lines": [ 33.373333, 34.523636, 35.335774, 34.804068 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.900002, "volume": 30230, "typical_volume": 54679.9, "trend": 34.41419, "fair_value": 35.479019, "relative_strength": -12.846336, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.182062, "energy": 35.209902, "activity_lines": [ 33.373334, 34.238182, 35.238371, 34.766821 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }