{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db564db3-906d-463f-83d9-09b0aeb98c6b", "symbol": "SHA0", "name": "Schaeffler AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.505, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.562, "architecture_energy": 64.624, "architecture_maturity": 16.276, "architecture_confidence": 79.41, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.18, "rotation_up": 8.9, "upward_expansion": 12.63, "deceleration": 38.56, "rotation_down": 74.43, "downward_expansion": 88.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.516667, 7.963636, 8.427605, 8.431564 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.14, "trend_reference": 8.690953, "distance_from_trend": -0.178456, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.528172, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.291566, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.233953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.286193, "excess_performance": -0.350833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.291566, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.394937, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14234, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.456508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286193, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5800381, "relative_activity": 1.337759, "balance": 0.751101, "dry_up": 1.115568, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143611, "annualized_volatility": 0.64217, "from_high_reference": -0.385542, "from_low_reference": 0.542121 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.690953, "fair_value_reference": 5.528172, "structural_low": 6.096151, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.001046, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.015877, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.228974, "worst_return": -0.193908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001109, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008721, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.331975, "worst_return": -0.103674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005044, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034342, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.449084, "worst_return": -0.127398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 7.98, "volume": 3046825, "typical_volume": 4735066.3, "trend": 8.788134, "fair_value": 5.497191, "relative_strength": 1.45052, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.282121, "energy": 32.23661, "activity_lines": [ 8.212667, 8.591455, 8.663192, 8.644808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.09, "volume": 6805559, "typical_volume": 4684466.85, "trend": 8.74715, "fair_value": 5.512091, "relative_strength": -12.126474, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.366552, "energy": 54.304473, "activity_lines": [ 7.830667, 8.250727, 8.543547, 8.535251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.14, "volume": 5800381, "typical_volume": 4335892.45, "trend": 8.690953, "fair_value": 5.528172, "relative_strength": -14.233953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.562116, "energy": 64.62378, "activity_lines": [ 7.516667, 7.963636, 8.427605, 8.431564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }