{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db599028-5362-44f8-b9e1-f09dd95aec30", "symbol": "GAS", "name": "Naturgy Energy Group, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.616, "architecture_energy": 56.622, "architecture_maturity": 7.57, "architecture_confidence": 70.202, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.1, "rotation_up": 65.22, "upward_expansion": 83.28, "deceleration": 51.03, "rotation_down": 14.04, "downward_expansion": 9.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.790574, 28.438764, 28.204951, 27.663579 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.82, "trend_reference": 26.943926, "distance_from_trend": 0.069629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.283778, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237772, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.689357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114115, "excess_performance": -0.060132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037678, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237772, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106894, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009518, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114115, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.018182, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 7.018182, "dry_up": 0.612472, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034503, "annualized_volatility": 0.211921, "from_high_reference": -0.039333, "from_low_reference": 0.204227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.943926, "fair_value_reference": 23.283778, "structural_low": 24.127898, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.001621, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.012669, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.166811, "worst_return": -0.136956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.032003, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.005519, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.255694, "worst_return": -0.203205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023871, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.024574, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.332811, "worst_return": -0.085492, "sufficient": true 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28.301503, 28.268092, 27.522542, 26.953982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.183716, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19.7, "trend": 26.294551, "fair_value": 23.088663, "relative_strength": -16.638942, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.411963, "energy": 29.565413, "activity_lines": [ 27.872041, 28.117486, 27.558546, 27.013378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.438501, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19.7, "trend": 26.409466, "fair_value": 23.121703, "relative_strength": -14.339097, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.097417, "energy": 27.748675, "activity_lines": [ 27.60726, 28.016773, 27.610594, 27.087181 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.340054, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19.7, "trend": 26.542702, "fair_value": 23.15809, "relative_strength": -9.437753, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.662516, "energy": 28.036913, "activity_lines": [ 27.739096, 28.065824, 27.737115, 27.211735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 19.7, "trend": 26.696871, "fair_value": 23.198221, "relative_strength": -7.241272, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.410649, "energy": 38.777097, "activity_lines": [ 28.265577, 28.262865, 27.944821, 27.390916 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.92, "volume": 55, "typical_volume": 22.45, "trend": 26.816851, "fair_value": 23.241859, "relative_strength": -8.036758, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.140927, "energy": 45.67329, "activity_lines": [ 28.597392, 28.35445, 28.089801, 27.534343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.45, "trend": 26.943926, "fair_value": 23.283778, "relative_strength": -10.689357, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.615753, "energy": 56.622213, "activity_lines": [ 28.790574, 28.438764, 28.204951, 27.663579 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }