{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db5b821d-dfe2-4448-8207-9dca0785f08c", "symbol": "ATON", "name": "ATON Green Storage S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -86.003, "architecture_energy": 94.347, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.643, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 29.96, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 66.61, "downward_expansion": 99.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.2944, 0.329382, 0.41089, 0.571671 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.262, "trend_reference": 0.839433, "distance_from_trend": -0.687885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.215724, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.918525, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -82.587008, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.84497, "excess_performance": -1.015862, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.687885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334575, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.918525, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.82587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.84497, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.736967, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50000, "relative_activity": 0.704722, "balance": 0.736967, "dry_up": 0.584919, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.172637, "annualized_volatility": 0.60683, "from_high_reference": -0.879817, "from_low_reference": 0.031496 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.839433, "fair_value_reference": 3.215724, "structural_low": 0.254, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.029029, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.057164, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.295181, "worst_return": -0.451765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.124328, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.144134, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.184783, "worst_return": -0.583387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013115, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.105873, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.301587, "worst_return": -0.633708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.330357, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.655892, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.020202, "worst_return": -0.630363, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05178, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076687, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096491, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.104348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127451, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.455263, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", 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"fair_value": 3.289263, "relative_strength": -80.101244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.784659, "energy": 93.508025, "activity_lines": [ 0.3432, 0.370873, 0.4698, 0.652748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.286, "volume": 53500, "typical_volume": 71575.0, "trend": 0.884367, "fair_value": 3.252635, "relative_strength": -81.020145, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.501297, "energy": 89.498358, "activity_lines": [ 0.319667, 0.350855, 0.439348, 0.611824 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.262, "volume": 50000, "typical_volume": 70950.0, "trend": 0.839433, "fair_value": 3.215724, "relative_strength": -82.587008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.003004, "energy": 94.346978, "activity_lines": [ 0.2944, 0.329382, 0.41089, 0.571671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }