{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db5d35dd-1548-416e-947f-983c012d7ebd", "symbol": "LFAO", "name": "LifeX 2055 Longevity Income ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 66.819, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.703, "architecture_energy": 76.714, "architecture_maturity": 25.902, "architecture_confidence": 78.284, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.07, "rotation_up": 8.79, "upward_expansion": 17.92, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 76.81, "downward_expansion": 93.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 159.03537, 160.35982, 161.222874, 161.97432 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 159.0926, "trend_reference": 162.966927, "distance_from_trend": -0.023774, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 161.082099, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.365395, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031826, "excess_performance": -0.15745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023774, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012351, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023842, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023082, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.382543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180, "relative_activity": 0.558399, "balance": 2.382543, "dry_up": 1.404529, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012455, "annualized_volatility": 0.077564, "from_high_reference": -0.059018, "from_low_reference": 0.009022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 162.966927, "fair_value_reference": 161.082099, "structural_low": 157.670041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.005131, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012913, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.019295, "worst_return": -0.017533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.019197, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.133132, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.019197, "worst_return": -0.019197, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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166.73501, "volume": 136, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 166.170692, "volume": 2003, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 163.112189, "volume": 10800, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 161.054682, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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160.8498, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 236.2, "trend": 163.503015, "fair_value": 161.15985, "relative_strength": -9.871812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.772336, "energy": 33.120656, "activity_lines": [ 161.780503, 162.061534, 162.295607, 162.890177 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 159.019578, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 237.0, "trend": 163.332326, "fair_value": 161.137786, "relative_strength": -10.108238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.303034, "energy": 69.064365, "activity_lines": [ 160.6385, 161.550173, 161.946961, 162.600923 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 157.670041, "volume": 1551, "typical_volume": 313.85, "trend": 163.142658, "fair_value": 161.1024, "relative_strength": -11.475177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.535679, "energy": 82.566531, "activity_lines": [ 159.36003, 160.798846, 161.503492, 162.235614 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 159.0926, "volume": 180, "typical_volume": 322.35, "trend": 162.966927, "fair_value": 161.082099, "relative_strength": -13.365395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.702684, "energy": 76.71424, "activity_lines": [ 159.03537, 160.35982, 161.222874, 161.97432 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }