{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db678e4f-af59-415e-9e7c-93f63162a507", "symbol": "EVTL", "name": "Vertical Aerospace Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.999, "architecture_energy": 81.703, "architecture_maturity": 70.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.327, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 18.08, "upward_expansion": 19.48, "deceleration": 38.84, "rotation_down": 72.56, "downward_expansion": 97.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.368, 1.544364, 1.897714, 2.258258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.36, "trend_reference": 2.916667, "distance_from_trend": -0.533714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.261578, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.782802, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.285178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.699779, "excess_performance": -0.825404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.533714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.782802, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.692852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200802, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.699779, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.633447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10683275, "relative_activity": 0.709189, "balance": 0.633447, "dry_up": 0.758222, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.282296, "annualized_volatility": 1.092426, "from_high_reference": -0.814403, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.916667, "fair_value_reference": 6.261578, "structural_low": 1.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.075269, "positive_rate": 0.238095, "directional_follow_through": 0.761905, "median_excess_return": -0.051886, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.953596, "worst_return": -0.289962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.002729, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093165, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.492562, "worst_return": -0.404545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.338384, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.36203, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.55102, "worst_return": -0.434935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 1.544667, 1.766909, 2.085524, 2.499269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.24, "volume": 11124849, "typical_volume": 14688268.4, "trend": 3.091333, "fair_value": 6.351578, "relative_strength": -71.649784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.247056, "energy": 85.281698, "activity_lines": [ 1.422, 1.632182, 1.979952, 2.369957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.36, "volume": 10683275, "typical_volume": 15064068.65, "trend": 2.916667, "fair_value": 6.261578, "relative_strength": -69.285178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.999447, "energy": 81.703402, "activity_lines": [ 1.368, 1.544364, 1.897714, 2.258258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }