{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db693ecc-4178-4611-aee1-eb3023b66184", "symbol": "002634", "name": "Zhejiang Bangjie Holding Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.124, "architecture_energy": 79.706, "architecture_maturity": 45.31, "architecture_confidence": 94.426, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 24.44, "upward_expansion": 20.49, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 55.02, "downward_expansion": 91.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.065333, 4.212545, 4.587857, 5.118602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.14, "trend_reference": 5.674333, "distance_from_trend": -0.270399, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.068846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183246, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.912067, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.2574, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.270399, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068713, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194347, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765594, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22070400, "relative_activity": 0.291232, "balance": 0.765594, "dry_up": 0.394338, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123374, "annualized_volatility": 0.916151, "from_high_reference": -0.571872, "from_low_reference": 0.224852 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.674333, "fair_value_reference": 5.068846, "structural_low": 3.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.036761, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.027583, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.394737, "worst_return": -0.315946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.116144, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.08863, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.360714, "worst_return": -0.379157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107748, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.014528, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.564211, "worst_return": -0.38806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130864, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091463, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.159341, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.253041, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.144716, "energy": 52.92827, "activity_lines": [ 4.495333, 4.591273, 5.183476, 5.580624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.74, "volume": 28450453, "typical_volume": 80717764.5, "trend": 5.812, "fair_value": 5.152756, "relative_strength": -32.023059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.353324, "energy": 85.912239, "activity_lines": [ 4.218667, 4.416545, 4.986571, 5.444022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.94, "volume": 36769657, "typical_volume": 78829574.55, "trend": 5.757333, "fair_value": 5.123397, "relative_strength": -28.379381, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.381309, "energy": 84.416756, "activity_lines": [ 4.073333, 4.308909, 4.825619, 5.323247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.17, "volume": 32245800, "typical_volume": 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"classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }