{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db6cb741-ec66-47c8-9899-d47a5feb605a", "symbol": "CWEB", "name": "Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.109, "architecture_energy": 84.781, "architecture_maturity": 28.136, "architecture_confidence": 94.317, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.18, "rotation_up": 19.11, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 37.26, "rotation_down": 65.67, "downward_expansion": 94.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.344, 0.381273, 0.48381, 0.583935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.35, "trend_reference": 0.678667, "distance_from_trend": -0.484283, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.308462, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.134663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.790941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.507042, "excess_performance": -0.627464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.484283, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074974, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.134663, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.96384, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.347909, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.786749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.507042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.784479, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 334800, "relative_activity": 0.675981, "balance": 0.784479, "dry_up": 1.249192, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.257143, "annualized_volatility": 1.204322, "from_high_reference": -0.736842, "from_low_reference": 2.181818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.678667, "fair_value_reference": 0.308462, "structural_low": 0.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.342105, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.088636, "regime_survival": 0.868421, "best_return": 0.859649, "worst_return": -0.483871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.083907, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.152666, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.257576, "worst_return": -0.491525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.3, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.379915, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.136364, "worst_return": -0.694639, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.535714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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0.581333, 0.632, 0.745714, 0.736989 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.4, "volume": 203300, "typical_volume": 798285.0, "trend": 0.665667, "fair_value": 0.305962, "relative_strength": -17.85671, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.457435, "energy": 60.203799, "activity_lines": [ 0.518667, 0.579818, 0.706667, 0.720409 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.44, "volume": 10700, "typical_volume": 770640.0, "trend": 0.676, "fair_value": 0.307308, "relative_strength": -10.622489, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.01084, "energy": 65.113827, "activity_lines": [ 0.482, 0.542, 0.672857, 0.705849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.44, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 678845.0, "trend": 0.686, "fair_value": 0.308462, "relative_strength": -12.265023, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.228162, "energy": 69.923135, "activity_lines": [ 0.454, 0.511273, 0.640333, 0.690624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.47, "volume": 76800, "typical_volume": 604640.0, "trend": 0.695333, "fair_value": 0.309679, "relative_strength": -7.499957, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.047303, "energy": 80.530606, "activity_lines": [ 0.451333, 0.495636, 0.613571, 0.676688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.32, "volume": 1081900, "typical_volume": 579265.0, "trend": 0.696333, "fair_value": 0.309551, "relative_strength": -37.339249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.038581, "energy": 84.750553, "activity_lines": [ 0.405333, 0.457273, 0.575286, 0.652473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.34, "volume": 798500, "typical_volume": 587295.0, "trend": 0.692, "fair_value": 0.309167, "relative_strength": -34.048772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.896842, "energy": 85.395493, "activity_lines": [ 0.380667, 0.428, 0.542095, 0.629484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.32, "volume": 259600, "typical_volume": 572975.0, "trend": 0.684, "fair_value": 0.308654, "relative_strength": -38.055741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.51488, "energy": 87.702942, "activity_lines": [ 0.353333, 0.399636, 0.510238, 0.605484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.35, "volume": 334800, "typical_volume": 495280.0, "trend": 0.678667, "fair_value": 0.308462, "relative_strength": -34.790941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.109435, "energy": 84.781378, "activity_lines": [ 0.344, 0.381273, 0.48381, 0.583935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }