{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db742fa5-90e1-4ea1-9aa3-317250743f01", "symbol": "EIOS", "name": "Enry S Island Spa Sb", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.578, "architecture_energy": 51.155, "architecture_maturity": 69.409, "architecture_confidence": 93.755, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.79, "rotation_up": 15.11, "upward_expansion": 9.38, "deceleration": 40.77, "rotation_down": 62.6, "downward_expansion": 85.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.766667, 87.809091, 88.314286, 89.515054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 85.5, "trend_reference": 91.7, "distance_from_trend": -0.067612, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 94.621795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.096403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.095097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140704, "excess_performance": -0.31495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067612, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04892, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.096403, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006056, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.310951, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024328, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140704, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.518718, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190, "relative_activity": 0.194344, "balance": 0.518718, "dry_up": 0.29305, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048133, "annualized_volatility": 0.216048, "from_high_reference": -0.310484, "from_low_reference": 0.11039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 91.7, "fair_value_reference": 94.621795, "structural_low": 77.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020664, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.021365, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.194175, "worst_return": -0.072626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011236, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.138549, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.23301, "worst_return": -0.118812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.590983, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.345467, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.31068, "worst_return": -0.128713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.728155, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.277808, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.728155, "worst_return": 0.728155, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.191781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165049, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01626, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.72093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057143, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.036364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066038, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.153465, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 140.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 87.833333, 88.745455, 88.845238, 90.277419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 87.5, "volume": 353, "typical_volume": 1012.0, "trend": 92.183333, "fair_value": 94.971154, "relative_strength": -28.254388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.77456, "energy": 39.870952, "activity_lines": [ 87.566667, 88.5, 88.654762, 89.946237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.5, "volume": 190, "typical_volume": 977.65, "trend": 91.7, "fair_value": 94.621795, "relative_strength": -31.095097, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.578225, "energy": 51.155381, "activity_lines": [ 86.766667, 87.809091, 88.314286, 89.515054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }