{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db761533-f816-469f-9be2-62f13ef39048", "symbol": "600019", "name": "Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.407, "architecture_energy": 23.797, "architecture_maturity": 99.979, "architecture_confidence": 74.109, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.47, "rotation_up": 36.12, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 21.66, "downward_expansion": 55.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.87, 5.754084, 5.800258, 5.99809 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.76, "trend_reference": 6.310492, "distance_from_trend": -0.087234, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.39803, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.099723, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.340745, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.210959, "excess_performance": -0.167755, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087234, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.099723, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074238, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.133407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050755, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.210959, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.964436, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 539886463, "relative_activity": 1.394215, "balance": 0.964436, "dry_up": 1.421349, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056577, "annualized_volatility": 0.251975, "from_high_reference": -0.264368, "from_low_reference": 0.072626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.310492, "fair_value_reference": 6.39803, "structural_low": 5.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.004442, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005994, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.23592, "worst_return": -0.082614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007613, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030987, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.232269, "worst_return": -0.148867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098057, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.038027, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.36006, "worst_return": -0.161549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -61.534725, "energy": 55.384835, "activity_lines": [ 5.584645, 5.61286, 5.824373, 6.090034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.91, "volume": 609556904, "typical_volume": 414676458.8, "trend": 6.407492, "fair_value": 6.388766, "relative_strength": -9.170537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.37328, "energy": 36.907695, "activity_lines": [ 5.706667, 5.656857, 5.808779, 6.055143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.13, "volume": 547768503, "typical_volume": 404001502.45, "trend": 6.366825, "fair_value": 6.394555, "relative_strength": -5.771584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.972342, "energy": 21.388274, "activity_lines": [ 5.874667, 5.7429, 5.819804, 6.03724 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.76, "volume": 539886463, "typical_volume": 387233194.6, "trend": 6.310492, "fair_value": 6.39803, "relative_strength": -13.340745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.406736, "energy": 23.796999, "activity_lines": [ 5.87, 5.754084, 5.800258, 5.99809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }