{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db78ecab-05d4-4075-a532-f973943f010f", "symbol": "A1VB34", "name": "AvalonBay Communities, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 65.953, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.962, "architecture_energy": 44.02, "architecture_maturity": 52.371, "architecture_confidence": 49.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.95, "rotation_up": 44.45, "upward_expansion": 73.72, "deceleration": 71.36, "rotation_down": 26.82, "downward_expansion": 11.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 241.567997, 241.306944, 235.10216, 230.658833 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 239.529999, "trend_reference": 227.137881, "distance_from_trend": 0.054558, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 250.950759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.04551, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.671728, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094169, "excess_performance": 0.151218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054558, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001201, "read": "Rising" 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209.601711, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.034862, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.043581, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.157403, "worst_return": -0.084068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.078594, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.08604, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.213232, "worst_return": -0.147185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03462, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.035303, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.431252, "worst_return": -0.064387, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -1.520287, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.759704, "energy": 90.729819, "activity_lines": [ 245.671893, 240.366328, 231.343186, 228.347863 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 239.5, "volume": 27, "typical_volume": 49.9, "trend": 227.279135, "fair_value": 250.536229, "relative_strength": -4.930987, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.521365, "energy": 77.239277, "activity_lines": [ 244.661487, 240.899526, 232.7, 229.114236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 238.929993, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 48.4, "trend": 227.239596, "fair_value": 250.731731, "relative_strength": -6.467396, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.605652, "energy": 56.153481, "activity_lines": [ 243.045997, 241.143637, 233.913894, 229.865904 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 239.529999, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 25.3, "trend": 227.137881, "fair_value": 250.950759, "relative_strength": -2.671728, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.96228, "energy": 44.019965, "activity_lines": [ 241.567997, 241.306944, 235.10216, 230.658833 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }