{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db7da33b-ed83-4acb-ba80-5d0e9352a470", "symbol": "2605", "name": "Sincere Navigation Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.578, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.182, "architecture_energy": 15.0, "architecture_maturity": 14.55, "architecture_confidence": 57.873, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.65, "rotation_up": 51.48, "upward_expansion": 34.32, "deceleration": 38.88, "rotation_down": 18.27, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.906666, 31.313268, 31.09743, 31.789133 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.349998, "trend_reference": 31.836895, "distance_from_trend": 0.016117, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.661538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311759, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.125433, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.201773, "excess_performance": -0.239599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016117, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06845, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311759, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11166, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.171254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078456, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.201773, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.977824, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32979888, "relative_activity": 0.951996, "balance": 0.977824, "dry_up": 0.863836, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074913, "annualized_volatility": 0.479064, "from_high_reference": -0.276338, "from_low_reference": 0.528282 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.836895, "fair_value_reference": 24.661538, "structural_low": 27.015219, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.027889, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012216, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.338542, "worst_return": -0.18288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.103594, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.020791, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.300729, "worst_return": -0.216638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002361, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.818182, "worst_return": -0.211721, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.840478, "energy": 9.242431, "activity_lines": [ 31.118004, 30.633116, 31.342699, 31.727358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.35, "volume": 24877181, "typical_volume": 57904713.75, "trend": 31.402085, "fair_value": 24.464475, "relative_strength": -18.159411, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.297997, "energy": 8.733664, "activity_lines": [ 31.043333, 30.626826, 31.107936, 31.670083 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.549999, "volume": 18755393, "typical_volume": 42927133.0, "trend": 31.652625, "fair_value": 24.563221, "relative_strength": -14.069211, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.893231, "energy": 12.491795, "activity_lines": [ 31.566666, 31.018774, 31.098114, 31.744142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 32.349998, "volume": 32979888, "typical_volume": 34642899.55, "trend": 31.836895, "fair_value": 24.661538, "relative_strength": -17.125433, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.181748, "energy": 15.000311, "activity_lines": [ 31.906666, 31.313268, 31.09743, 31.789133 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }