{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db82a20d-e63e-4ee4-a510-6da63e5c6db9", "symbol": "INF", "name": "Informa plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 51.795, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.726, "architecture_energy": 44.54, "architecture_maturity": 26.682, "architecture_confidence": 42.716, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.97, "rotation_up": 46.11, "upward_expansion": 70.42, "deceleration": 70.22, "rotation_down": 23.85, "downward_expansion": 10.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 886.546167, 883.744645, 858.740054, 843.085534 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 904.4, "trend_reference": 835.091427, "distance_from_trend": 0.082995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 822.939531, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.204808, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.080208, "excess_performance": 0.028973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082995, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016516, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098987, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096341, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066611, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.080208, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.783486, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18970252, "relative_activity": 1.164749, "balance": 0.783486, "dry_up": 1.082964, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041919, "annualized_volatility": 0.233629, "from_high_reference": -0.095434, "from_low_reference": 0.258089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 835.091427, "fair_value_reference": 822.939531, "structural_low": 718.867892, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.001748, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 6.8e-05, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.124721, "worst_return": -0.110356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.028429, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.020576, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.081856, "worst_return": -0.108316, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051476, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.026323, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.135786, 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18970252, "typical_volume": 16286986.05, "trend": 835.091427, "fair_value": 822.939531, "relative_strength": -4.204808, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.725596, "energy": 44.539999, "activity_lines": [ 886.546167, 883.744645, 858.740054, 843.085534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }