{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db871a58-9c5a-4292-8f14-9c2ebb548b54", "symbol": "TAVI", "name": "Tavia Acquisition Corp. Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 71.941, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.919, "architecture_energy": 18.505, "architecture_maturity": 15.979, "architecture_confidence": 74.626, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.94, "rotation_up": 46.66, "upward_expansion": 76.26, "deceleration": 55.06, "rotation_down": 18.89, "downward_expansion": 0.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.684, 10.670364, 10.647717, 10.622635 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.68, "trend_reference": 10.584373, "distance_from_trend": 0.009035, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.338122, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.03307, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.165199, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016175, "excess_performance": -0.171279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009035, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007676, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.03307, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002186, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.111652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042286, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 31.070112, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15600, "relative_activity": 0.125109, "balance": 31.070112, "dry_up": 0.065866, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052514, "annualized_volatility": 0.018445, "from_high_reference": -0.103275, "from_low_reference": 0.039922 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.584373, "fair_value_reference": 10.338122, "structural_low": 10.45, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.002814, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034363, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.002814, "worst_return": 0.002814, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001876, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 9.91, "volume": 679038, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 9.92, "volume": 397067, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 9.91, 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.65, "volume": 985, "typical_volume": 131296.8, "trend": 10.549377, "fair_value": 10.321201, "relative_strength": -12.909288, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.153, "energy": 18.492044, "activity_lines": [ 10.648, 10.639455, 10.61753, 10.591098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.67, "volume": 5819, "typical_volume": 126937.55, "trend": 10.55804, "fair_value": 10.325404, "relative_strength": -8.649363, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.943761, "energy": 19.084677, "activity_lines": [ 10.655333, 10.646364, 10.624767, 10.59888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.69, "volume": 5287, "typical_volume": 127141.3, "trend": 10.567373, "fair_value": 10.329744, "relative_strength": -6.717321, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.382647, "energy": 19.375322, "activity_lines": [ 10.669333, 10.655636, 10.633242, 10.607393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.7, "volume": 6146, "typical_volume": 124315.4, "trend": 10.576373, "fair_value": 10.3341, "relative_strength": -6.813175, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.189504, "energy": 19.392336, "activity_lines": [ 10.681333, 10.665455, 10.641813, 10.61595 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.68, "volume": 15600, "typical_volume": 124691.65, "trend": 10.584373, "fair_value": 10.338122, "relative_strength": -11.165199, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.918733, "energy": 18.505015, "activity_lines": [ 10.684, 10.670364, 10.647717, 10.622635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }