{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db8d5d2a-184f-4567-ac98-c6783990177c", "symbol": "300641", "name": "Jiangsu Zhengdan Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.919, "architecture_energy": 69.133, "architecture_maturity": 42.071, "architecture_confidence": 92.105, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.73, "rotation_up": 16.03, "upward_expansion": 15.85, "deceleration": 38.42, "rotation_down": 61.59, "downward_expansion": 86.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.320667, 14.889037, 15.563425, 16.575787 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.69, "trend_reference": 17.825106, "distance_from_trend": -0.175881, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.800779, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.174755, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.32405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.307076, "excess_performance": -0.314475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175881, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.174755, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077952, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307076, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.14221, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35054322, "relative_activity": 0.666158, "balance": 1.14221, "dry_up": 0.674686, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105492, "annualized_volatility": 0.474614, "from_high_reference": -0.431502, "from_low_reference": 0.086538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.825106, "fair_value_reference": 17.800779, "structural_low": 13.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.013489, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.014653, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 3.298057, "worst_return": -0.198052, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.005661, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006843, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 5.060913, "worst_return": -0.186636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001852, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.059645, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 4.612844, "worst_return": -0.233031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-74.570979, "energy": 65.908094, "activity_lines": [ 15.068667, 15.486407, 16.380851, 17.294367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.91, "volume": 37968686, "typical_volume": 70192776.7, "trend": 18.037439, "fair_value": 17.680573, "relative_strength": -29.577783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.104079, "energy": 74.154231, "activity_lines": [ 14.444, 15.17719, 16.035217, 17.019736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.39, "volume": 31847699, "typical_volume": 64570272.1, "trend": 17.923773, "fair_value": 17.739501, "relative_strength": -25.09303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.629207, "energy": 75.10206, "activity_lines": [ 14.278667, 14.997612, 15.766107, 16.784418 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.69, "volume": 35054322, "typical_volume": 52621621.6, "trend": 17.825106, "fair_value": 17.800779, "relative_strength": -26.32405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.918835, "energy": 69.132596, "activity_lines": [ 14.320667, 14.889037, 15.563425, 16.575787 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }