{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db8dda35-156e-4b30-96c3-cf2dac849618", "symbol": "MFI", "name": "Maple Leaf Foods Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.41, "architecture_energy": 31.583, "architecture_maturity": 7.721, "architecture_confidence": 64.309, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.21, "rotation_up": 14.27, "upward_expansion": 20.56, "deceleration": 61.6, "rotation_down": 65.32, "downward_expansion": 38.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.542, 29.308364, 29.544846, 29.366243 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.360001, "trend_reference": 28.756886, "distance_from_trend": -0.013801, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.633332, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.253019, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.717272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070557, "excess_performance": -0.049865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013801, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071124, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.253019, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074575, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097173, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070557, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668342, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 997300, "relative_activity": 1.066346, "balance": 0.668342, "dry_up": 0.946351, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047549, "annualized_volatility": 0.216481, "from_high_reference": -0.107053, "from_low_reference": 0.270773 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.756886, "fair_value_reference": 22.633332, "structural_low": 26.076818, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.012627, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.000407, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.180902, "worst_return": -0.107196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037435, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.060612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129761, "worst_return": -0.126707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.063416, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.114815, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.666979, "worst_return": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.51, "volume": 1074600, "typical_volume": 1153600.0, "trend": 28.212537, "fair_value": 22.482358, "relative_strength": -4.363538, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.216865, "energy": 37.936211, "activity_lines": [ 30.538667, 30.378048, 29.971054, 29.334282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.27, "volume": 864100, "typical_volume": 1113435.0, "trend": 28.37813, "fair_value": 22.532966, "relative_strength": -4.803235, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.002393, "energy": 19.100756, "activity_lines": [ 30.038667, 30.24311, 29.938233, 29.402506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.959999, "volume": 893000, "typical_volume": 1076500.0, "trend": 28.483954, "fair_value": 22.575429, "relative_strength": -9.107692, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.564635, "energy": 14.937803, "activity_lines": [ 29.206, 29.866889, 29.772863, 29.37553 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.6, "volume": 785900, "typical_volume": 1012890.0, "trend": 28.619983, "fair_value": 22.601882, "relative_strength": -6.460315, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.111892, "energy": 19.700098, "activity_lines": [ 28.825333, 29.604272, 29.670135, 29.383016 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.360001, "volume": 997300, "typical_volume": 935250.0, "trend": 28.756886, "fair_value": 22.633332, "relative_strength": -9.717272, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.410274, "energy": 31.58278, "activity_lines": [ 28.542, 29.308364, 29.544846, 29.366243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }