{ "ticker": { "uuid": "db8e829c-2df3-4c5b-a8b3-09956975472e", "symbol": "300428", "name": "Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.412, "architecture_energy": 33.932, "architecture_maturity": 71.612, "architecture_confidence": 59.153, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.28, "rotation_up": 23.25, "upward_expansion": 15.44, "deceleration": 65.98, "rotation_down": 40.86, "downward_expansion": 63.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.405334, 18.3456, 19.101893, 19.88402 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 19.030001, "trend_reference": 21.092973, "distance_from_trend": -0.097804, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.399824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.391486, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204099, "excess_performance": -0.211498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097804, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068706, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019063, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153915, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038575, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.831699, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35016673, "relative_activity": 0.963747, "balance": 1.831699, "dry_up": 1.177479, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089225, "annualized_volatility": 0.49395, "from_high_reference": -0.30011, "from_low_reference": 0.158247 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.092973, "fair_value_reference": 19.399824, "structural_low": 16.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.000168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004865, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.313486, "worst_return": -0.202981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039301, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.031074, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.305596, "worst_return": -0.170014, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019792, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.020616, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.517934, "worst_return": -0.170795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 67.583912, "activity_lines": [ 17.731961, 18.451891, 19.492929, 20.405692 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.08, "volume": 63893889, "typical_volume": 40087929.9, "trend": 21.401639, "fair_value": 19.443695, "relative_strength": -17.083076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.984075, "energy": 50.062454, "activity_lines": [ 17.722, 18.243132, 19.275076, 20.18264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.98, "volume": 37698937, "typical_volume": 37754901.15, "trend": 21.236973, "fair_value": 19.419381, "relative_strength": -11.402033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.629071, "energy": 46.137732, "activity_lines": [ 18.109333, 18.264434, 19.173747, 20.026406 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.030001, "volume": 35016673, "typical_volume": 36333874.8, "trend": 21.092973, "fair_value": 19.399824, "relative_strength": -15.391486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.4117, "energy": 33.932088, "activity_lines": [ 18.405334, 18.3456, 19.101893, 19.88402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }