{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "db96cfbc-5fad-4a8d-b855-c30dc8a3c939",
    "symbol": "HMEM",
    "name": "HSBC MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 66.007,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 20.928,
    "architecture_energy": 24.079,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.952,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.705,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.16,
        "rotation_up": 17.13,
        "upward_expansion": 52.24,
        "deceleration": 93.99,
        "rotation_down": 42.31,
        "downward_expansion": 22.9
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.299437,
        14.547902,
        14.52367,
        14.190484
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 14.434,
    "trend_reference": 13.754548,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.049398,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 10.594869,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362358,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -2.793885,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.125128,
    "excess_performance": -0.045763,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049398,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.0755,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.362358,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.085766,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.027939,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.130154,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.125128,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.825164,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 18387,
      "relative_activity": 0.478266,
      "balance": 0.825164,
      "dry_up": 1.590188,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.041742,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.225446,
      "from_high_reference": -0.078994,
      "from_low_reference": 0.359941
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 13.754548,
      "fair_value_reference": 10.594869,
      "structural_low": 12.021227,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.01386,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.015846,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.128421,
        "worst_return": -0.018507,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.056326,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.036957,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.234774,
        "worst_return": -0.006272,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.005595,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.035244,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.340203,
        "worst_return": -0.007393,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.084913,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.143734,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.134849,
        "worst_return": 0.034977,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000302,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.023014,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008839,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.005021,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.021383,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.082424,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.034812,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-01",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.118402,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.038941,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008316,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.125143,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "return": 0.019597,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012027,
        "active": true
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 55310.7,
        "trend": 13.452351,
        "fair_value": 10.453438,
        "relative_strength": 2.803285,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "direction": 61.632339,
        "energy": 59.144322,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 14.041883,
        "volume": 57981,
        "typical_volume": 56927.8,
        "trend": 13.532462,
        "fair_value": 10.48846,
        "relative_strength": -1.802827,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.134755,
        "energy": 33.281757,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.710626,
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          14.454952,
          14.0618
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 14.262466,
        "volume": 94915,
        "typical_volume": 57166.35,
        "trend": 13.619595,
        "fair_value": 10.522393,
        "relative_strength": -0.227908,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.206734,
        "energy": 24.159625,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.488265,
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          14.484038,
          14.108897
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.138,
        "volume": 73257,
        "typical_volume": 48409.55,
        "trend": 13.687803,
        "fair_value": 10.557022,
        "relative_strength": -1.873052,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.876211,
        "energy": 24.126507,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.313451,
          14.606742,
          14.493341,
          14.142343
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.434,
        "volume": 18387,
        "typical_volume": 38445.15,
        "trend": 13.754548,
        "fair_value": 10.594869,
        "relative_strength": -2.793885,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 20.928263,
        "energy": 24.079103,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.299437,
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          14.52367,
          14.190484
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}