{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dba595de-8941-4dd2-9083-c62c9def8fa7", "symbol": "MGAB", "name": "Mackenzie Global Fixed Income Allocation ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.102, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.274, "architecture_energy": 53.771, "architecture_maturity": 2.338, "architecture_confidence": 80.963, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.81, "rotation_up": 12.11, "upward_expansion": 12.54, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 66.73, "downward_expansion": 83.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.599591, 16.649267, 16.662198, 16.680079 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.639999, "trend_reference": 16.710668, "distance_from_trend": -0.004229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.02483, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.038388, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.663161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008549, "excess_performance": -0.12897, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00136, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.038388, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008549, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.105128, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.105128, "dry_up": 1.530804, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007073, "annualized_volatility": 0.036155, "from_high_reference": -0.02425, "from_low_reference": 0.009742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.710668, "fair_value_reference": 16.02483, "structural_low": 16.49373, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005424, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.008047, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.045213, "worst_return": -0.032975, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.01116, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.011252, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.044421, "worst_return": -0.053116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048426, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.031574, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.055258, "worst_return": -0.069764, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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16.717471, 16.696627, 16.712962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.633171, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1086.55, "trend": 16.726002, "fair_value": 15.989687, "relative_strength": -10.252833, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.380195, "energy": 15.061206, "activity_lines": [ 16.70396, 16.705896, 16.689472, 16.706815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.533571, "volume": 3000, "typical_volume": 1236.55, "trend": 16.720225, "fair_value": 15.99988, "relative_strength": -10.631641, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.33733, "energy": 36.29337, "activity_lines": [ 16.636626, 16.676851, 16.674161, 16.6944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.57341, "volume": 5657, "typical_volume": 1509.4, "trend": 16.715161, "fair_value": 16.012141, "relative_strength": -9.589265, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.343761, "energy": 50.197665, "activity_lines": [ 16.599307, 16.656594, 16.664663, 16.684928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.639999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1413.8, "trend": 16.710668, "fair_value": 16.02483, "relative_strength": -11.663161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.274317, "energy": 53.77089, "activity_lines": [ 16.599591, 16.649267, 16.662198, 16.680079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }