{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dba994a2-9f74-4d5d-b361-1365f859b371", "symbol": "BTNC", "name": "Boutique Newcity Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 72.715, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.05, "architecture_energy": 48.661, "architecture_maturity": 20.064, "architecture_confidence": 93.261, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.55, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 9.53, "deceleration": 46.61, "rotation_down": 44.64, "downward_expansion": 80.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.526667, 14.547273, 14.954463, 15.516074 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.6, "trend_reference": 15.784179, "distance_from_trend": -0.075023, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.759557, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.959885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051828, "excess_performance": -0.140497, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076713, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073578, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015457, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.586563, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7700, "relative_activity": 0.593907, "balance": 0.586563, "dry_up": 0.64597, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046365, "annualized_volatility": 0.436793, "from_high_reference": -0.27957, "from_low_reference": 0.577742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.784179, "fair_value_reference": 15.759557, "structural_low": 13.325373, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.007861, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.423077, "median_excess_return": 0.000787, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.235529, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.009091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.041478, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.172043, "worst_return": -0.248908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.011628, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067531, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.16129, "worst_return": -0.177849, "sufficient": true }, { 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11000, "typical_volume": 14830.0, "trend": 15.496816, "fair_value": 16.182077, "relative_strength": -10.301499, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.792215, "energy": 45.217102, "activity_lines": [ 14.546667, 14.685455, 15.354947, 15.718706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.6, "volume": 10300, "typical_volume": 14530.0, "trend": 15.582487, "fair_value": 16.024115, "relative_strength": -9.82974, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.383238, "energy": 36.280291, "activity_lines": [ 14.553333, 14.623636, 15.209318, 15.660847 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.4, "volume": 4500, "typical_volume": 13340.0, "trend": 15.661492, "fair_value": 15.87657, "relative_strength": -9.882418, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.869051, "energy": 58.59344, "activity_lines": [ 14.506667, 14.554545, 15.062807, 15.584558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.6, "volume": 7700, "typical_volume": 12965.0, "trend": 15.784179, "fair_value": 15.759557, "relative_strength": -7.959885, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.05029, "energy": 48.66132, "activity_lines": [ 14.526667, 14.547273, 14.954463, 15.516074 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }