{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbafd8c0-fb09-41ad-a6f5-e4a24f270233", "symbol": "2349", "name": "RITEK Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.693, "architecture_energy": 56.956, "architecture_maturity": 22.073, "architecture_confidence": 78.939, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.31, "rotation_up": 13.08, "upward_expansion": 9.7, "deceleration": 43.82, "rotation_down": 69.37, "downward_expansion": 85.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.12, 11.475455, 12.161905, 12.514409 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.0, "trend_reference": 12.955, "distance_from_trend": -0.150907, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.483526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042106, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.445285, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169811, "excess_performance": -0.515544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150907, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020045, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042106, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344453, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169811, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.597533, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8476128, "relative_activity": 0.393929, "balance": 1.597533, "dry_up": 0.416623, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11049, "annualized_volatility": 0.524366, "from_high_reference": -0.356725, "from_low_reference": 0.267281 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.955, "fair_value_reference": 11.483526, "structural_low": 9.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.003276, "positive_rate": 0.441176, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.021604, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.518919, "worst_return": -0.18813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.001333, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.027886, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.26584, "worst_return": -0.211538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015075, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.035446, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.086563, "worst_return": -0.211538, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021978, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.146154, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.114798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172973, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003559, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.154135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022222, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.53, "volume": 4787915, "typical_volume": 11623706.8, "trend": 8.971, "fair_value": 9.403294, "relative_strength": -5.589495, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"close": 10.95, "volume": 6180204, "typical_volume": 24309726.85, "trend": 13.26, "fair_value": 11.45109, "relative_strength": -34.704509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.500819, "energy": 76.716389, "activity_lines": [ 11.096667, 11.840909, 12.427857, 12.758817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 11.6, "volume": 11114515, "typical_volume": 21734579.65, "trend": 13.128333, "fair_value": 11.467885, "relative_strength": -32.50694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.094094, "energy": 68.710724, "activity_lines": [ 11.166667, 11.690909, 12.318571, 12.65172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 11.0, "volume": 8476128, "typical_volume": 21516872.95, "trend": 12.955, "fair_value": 11.483526, "relative_strength": -34.445285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.693124, "energy": 56.956136, "activity_lines": [ 11.12, 11.475455, 12.161905, 12.514409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }