{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbb22434-0f88-4f4a-a4ea-28332a91d3d0", "symbol": "FGR", "name": "Eiffage SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.046, "architecture_energy": 62.012, "architecture_maturity": 4.093, "architecture_confidence": 94.553, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.23, "rotation_up": 14.34, "upward_expansion": 16.84, "deceleration": 34.63, "rotation_down": 61.93, "downward_expansion": 85.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.853333, 124.357273, 125.93083, 127.018998 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 124.0, "trend_reference": 127.332006, "distance_from_trend": -0.026168, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 100.072955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.741423, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032843, "excess_performance": -0.20709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026168, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239096, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148931, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157414, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.598391, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.598391, "dry_up": 1.692444, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033955, "annualized_volatility": 0.266588, "from_high_reference": -0.12486, "from_low_reference": 0.23527 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.332006, "fair_value_reference": 100.072955, "structural_low": 118.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.036804, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.003227, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.138245, "worst_return": -0.074396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047967, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.020357, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.412742, "worst_return": -0.044385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.110566, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.011159, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.381171, "worst_return": -0.038615, "sufficient": true }, { 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130.199997, "volume": 52, "typical_volume": 18.25, "trend": 126.184061, "fair_value": 98.553644, "relative_strength": -10.891979, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.006474, "energy": 15.705381, "activity_lines": [ 128.410002, 127.588763, 128.897953, 128.263216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 129.699997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.25, "trend": 126.644538, "fair_value": 98.848111, "relative_strength": -12.961801, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.423227, "energy": 22.83001, "activity_lines": [ 129.19, 127.894478, 128.877901, 128.49005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 121.150002, "volume": 1315, "typical_volume": 84.0, "trend": 126.742982, "fair_value": 99.086055, "relative_strength": -17.232931, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.653263, "energy": 13.170148, "activity_lines": [ 126.826667, 126.657091, 128.041974, 128.135564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 121.550003, "volume": 412, "typical_volume": 104.6, "trend": 126.90451, "fair_value": 99.325763, "relative_strength": -14.954262, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.821868, "energy": 36.774025, "activity_lines": [ 124.813334, 125.672457, 127.318346, 127.800533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.849998, "volume": 279, "typical_volume": 115.7, "trend": 127.074433, "fair_value": 99.564307, "relative_strength": -15.543621, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.757483, "energy": 54.01713, "activity_lines": [ 123.233333, 124.977273, 126.712323, 127.474435 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.25, "volume": 75, "typical_volume": 113.15, "trend": 127.234853, "fair_value": 99.811023, "relative_strength": -14.170882, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.882031, "energy": 64.6934, "activity_lines": [ 122.686667, 124.617273, 126.268548, 127.227698 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 113.15, "trend": 127.332006, "fair_value": 100.072955, "relative_strength": -15.741423, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.045754, "energy": 62.0123, "activity_lines": [ 122.853333, 124.357273, 125.93083, 127.018998 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }