{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbb3fda1-8ec3-4405-9b0d-8ff3d83e59ed", "symbol": "301122", "name": "Caina Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.769, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.58, "architecture_energy": 6.032, "architecture_maturity": 24.639, "architecture_confidence": 70.53, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.69, "rotation_up": 32.26, "upward_expansion": 29.04, "deceleration": 40.35, "rotation_down": 21.78, "downward_expansion": 46.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.680667, 28.872318, 28.836197, 29.333114 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.76, "trend_reference": 29.875956, "distance_from_trend": 0.063062, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.72232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.234725, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.154868, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.095172, "excess_performance": 0.087773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063062, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.234725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091549, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054878, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.414571, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20652481, "relative_activity": 1.587821, "balance": 1.414571, "dry_up": 2.211295, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139795, "annualized_volatility": 0.517845, "from_high_reference": -0.173992, "from_low_reference": 0.519617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.875956, "fair_value_reference": 25.72232, "structural_low": 23.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.110797, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.064877, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.242848, "worst_return": -0.224374, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026692, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011393, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.326493, "worst_return": -0.133016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00764, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.187855, "worst_return": -0.172575, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 25.868604, "relative_strength": -7.97395, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.067195, "energy": 17.787868, "activity_lines": [ 28.236, 27.951283, 28.934743, 29.452888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.35, "volume": 16643372, "typical_volume": 9811726.35, "trend": 29.586956, "fair_value": 25.815901, "relative_strength": -5.239678, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.6717, "energy": 20.808298, "activity_lines": [ 27.906, 27.556938, 28.594273, 29.240246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.66, "volume": 28388893, "typical_volume": 10520259.8, "trend": 29.607623, "fair_value": 25.766869, "relative_strength": 2.525758, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.40322, "energy": 17.320688, "activity_lines": [ 28.196, 27.709468, 28.516041, 29.180442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.9, "volume": 49362793, "typical_volume": 12470580.9, "trend": 29.685956, "fair_value": 25.731883, "relative_strength": 8.38018, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.674351, "energy": 10.600548, "activity_lines": [ 28.724, 28.131301, 28.576524, 29.199305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.76, "volume": 20652481, "typical_volume": 13006807.95, "trend": 29.875956, "fair_value": 25.72232, "relative_strength": 9.154868, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.57975, "energy": 6.03206, "activity_lines": [ 29.680667, 28.872318, 28.836197, 29.333114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }