{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbb6c9db-2739-4835-ab05-b2a553c8c9b1", "symbol": "D1OW34", "name": "Dow Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.893, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.09, "architecture_energy": 47.802, "architecture_maturity": 21.159, "architecture_confidence": 88.946, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.95, "rotation_up": 26.11, "upward_expansion": 12.86, "deceleration": 48.27, "rotation_down": 46.42, "downward_expansion": 74.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.249334, 38.370727, 40.868068, 42.247983 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.990002, "trend_reference": 42.667634, "distance_from_trend": -0.10963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.615029, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.249432, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.076358, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.067033, "excess_performance": -0.009984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10963, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066593, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.249432, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109266, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061007, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.067033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468044, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1101, "relative_activity": 0.252784, "balance": 0.468044, "dry_up": 1.336643, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072806, "annualized_volatility": 0.477128, "from_high_reference": -0.309746, "from_low_reference": 0.411035 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.667634, "fair_value_reference": 50.615029, "structural_low": 34.889999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.043326, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.033735, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.091981, "worst_return": -0.240553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.028377, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.132127, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.424598, "worst_return": -0.250135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.035639, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.050022, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.645839, "worst_return": -0.320642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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51.582227, "relative_strength": 6.210257, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.339292, "energy": 16.444388, "activity_lines": [ 43.407499, 44.856668, 45.885148, 44.095477 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 41.119999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3701.3, "trend": 41.304018, "fair_value": 51.49891, "relative_strength": 6.053248, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.340697, "energy": 21.484995, "activity_lines": [ 42.320918, 44.002757, 45.51165, 44.109241 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 37.48, "volume": 2018, "typical_volume": 3628.1, "trend": 41.515672, "fair_value": 51.375393, "relative_strength": -5.606146, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.884592, "energy": 54.253604, "activity_lines": [ 40.532667, 42.622371, 44.765857, 43.86253 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 36.18, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 3303.45, "trend": 41.715498, "fair_value": 51.244734, "relative_strength": -9.002324, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.420364, "energy": 64.413168, "activity_lines": [ 38.793333, 41.135519, 43.91168, 43.518293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 37.549999, "volume": 6209, "typical_volume": 3608.45, "trend": 41.899294, "fair_value": 51.11661, "relative_strength": -6.845186, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.078908, "energy": 67.366087, "activity_lines": [ 37.936666, 40.118094, 43.216817, 43.249551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.669998, "volume": 108, "typical_volume": 3594.75, "trend": 42.126658, "fair_value": 51.006684, "relative_strength": -1.23827, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.782901, "energy": 67.891877, "activity_lines": [ 37.877999, 39.532408, 42.634946, 43.04121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.060001, "volume": 17893, "typical_volume": 4394.5, "trend": 42.340581, "fair_value": 50.888418, "relative_strength": -2.66177, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.594191, "energy": 63.210361, "activity_lines": [ 37.831333, 38.945159, 41.993819, 42.778845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.68, "volume": 4185, "typical_volume": 4375.95, "trend": 42.557777, "fair_value": 50.758678, "relative_strength": -3.243444, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.811223, "energy": 56.013042, "activity_lines": [ 38.195333, 38.665818, 41.441237, 42.542678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.990002, "volume": 1101, "typical_volume": 4355.5, "trend": 42.667634, "fair_value": 50.615029, "relative_strength": -2.076358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.089584, "energy": 47.802394, "activity_lines": [ 38.249334, 38.370727, 40.868068, 42.247983 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }