{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbc0bfce-15ff-4b23-b2d9-46adc6433914", "symbol": "TRAC-B", "name": "AB Traction", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 50.928, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.45, "architecture_energy": 47.329, "architecture_maturity": 4.996, "architecture_confidence": 47.686, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.2, "rotation_up": 65.92, "upward_expansion": 58.76, "deceleration": 22.73, "rotation_down": 19.95, "downward_expansion": 19.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 242.8, 240.727273, 239.343708, 239.065266 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 243.0, "trend_reference": 240.012172, "distance_from_trend": 0.012449, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 240.580738, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.010056, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.252559, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.026192, "excess_performance": -0.087687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012449, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00528, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.010056, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006439, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026192, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573251, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20361, "relative_activity": 3.222162, "balance": 0.573251, "dry_up": 1.865549, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022792, "annualized_volatility": 0.12582, "from_high_reference": -0.051916, "from_low_reference": 0.121618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 240.012172, "fair_value_reference": 240.580738, "structural_low": 222.454544, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.024793, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.017939, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.055085, "worst_return": -0.032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.024657, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005987, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157895, "worst_return": -0.065693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.032935, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038235, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.086136, "worst_return": -0.127737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 235.0, "volume": 10437, "typical_volume": 5196.0, "trend": 239.657429, "fair_value": 239.839824, "relative_strength": -11.525838, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.09409, "energy": 21.877235, "activity_lines": [ 236.666667, 236.854545, 237.108825, 238.222295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 242.0, "volume": 7872, "typical_volume": 5250.15, "trend": 239.922067, "fair_value": 240.006947, "relative_strength": -7.500361, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.528514, "energy": 6.21315, "activity_lines": [ 238.466667, 237.654545, 237.572049, 238.373428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 244.0, "volume": 5392, "typical_volume": 5070.8, "trend": 240.156652, "fair_value": 240.192657, "relative_strength": -7.7846, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.303986, "energy": 24.021934, "activity_lines": [ 240.533333, 238.836364, 238.22479, 238.636521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 244.0, "volume": 13529, "typical_volume": 5618.0, "trend": 240.197798, "fair_value": 240.378368, "relative_strength": -8.59935, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.782595, "energy": 37.589255, "activity_lines": [ 242.066667, 239.909091, 238.848624, 238.884479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 243.0, "volume": 20361, "typical_volume": 6319.05, "trend": 240.012172, "fair_value": 240.580738, "relative_strength": -10.252559, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.450431, "energy": 47.32885, "activity_lines": [ 242.8, 240.727273, 239.343708, 239.065266 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }