{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbc1f87f-56c9-4c89-9ae3-4d72b740b67d", "symbol": "COLM", "name": "Columbia Sportswear Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 66.303, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.245, "architecture_energy": 22.673, "architecture_maturity": 37.687, "architecture_confidence": 78.388, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.12, "rotation_up": 15.01, "upward_expansion": 19.07, "deceleration": 65.97, "rotation_down": 54.07, "downward_expansion": 32.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 60.083333, 61.838545, 62.335078, 61.464299 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 57.36, "trend_reference": 60.2319, "distance_from_trend": -0.047681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 68.422023, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161673, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.203416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.081294, "excess_performance": -0.268748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047681, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052192, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161673, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122034, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081294, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.354902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4436949, "relative_activity": 1.555196, "balance": 0.354902, "dry_up": 1.198981, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083477, "annualized_volatility": 0.289872, "from_high_reference": -0.169418, "from_low_reference": 0.227961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.2319, "fair_value_reference": 68.422023, "structural_low": 51.791822, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.014978, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.027972, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.103461, "worst_return": -0.102909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038053, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.061909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.203936, "worst_return": -0.213698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063939, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.134221, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200263, "worst_return": -0.281318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 63.654667, 64.24071, 62.738332, 61.524827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.32, "volume": 3218002, "typical_volume": 2731848.95, "trend": 60.037012, "fair_value": 68.593161, "relative_strength": 0.616746, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.99163, "energy": 17.712506, "activity_lines": [ 63.044, 63.953273, 62.876251, 61.687813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.38, "volume": 3827192, "typical_volume": 2792521.5, "trend": 60.167463, "fair_value": 68.515344, "relative_strength": -4.631394, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.705281, "energy": 12.513651, "activity_lines": [ 61.729333, 63.043091, 62.712328, 61.645425 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.36, "volume": 4436949, "typical_volume": 2852984.4, "trend": 60.2319, "fair_value": 68.422023, "relative_strength": -12.203416, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.244916, "energy": 22.673148, "activity_lines": [ 60.083333, 61.838545, 62.335078, 61.464299 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }