{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbc9ad30-5cc4-4018-9be0-a8431cdca8f3", "symbol": "M03", "name": "Miyoshi Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -43.643, "architecture_energy": 73.784, "architecture_maturity": 21.135, "architecture_confidence": 76.479, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.57, "rotation_up": 16.07, "upward_expansion": 25.23, "deceleration": 43.01, "rotation_down": 78.9, "downward_expansion": 69.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005067, 0.005618, 0.006233, 0.006243 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.006167, "distance_from_trend": -0.189189, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.006206, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.194333, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.47479, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.321502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189189, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010929, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.194333, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333911, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.334748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.612928, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.033386, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4707100, "relative_activity": 0.724921, "balance": 0.033386, "dry_up": 0.430928, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138462, "annualized_volatility": 0.65923, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006167, "fair_value_reference": 0.006206, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032258, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0625, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.08366, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.258065, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.419355, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.4135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.4375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.552419, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.611392, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.354839, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.015, "volume": 961700, "typical_volume": 4622530.0, "trend": 0.0172, "fair_value": 0.025224, "relative_strength": -13.518076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.981839, "energy": 56.391666, "activity_lines": [ 0.0154, 0.015745, 0.016205, 0.016703 ] }, { 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0.00657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.005, "volume": 2560000, "typical_volume": 6486635.0, "trend": 0.0063, "fair_value": 0.006411, "relative_strength": -32.079891, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.907593, "energy": 34.074155, "activity_lines": [ 0.005933, 0.006455, 0.006671, 0.006484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.005, "volume": 62500, "typical_volume": 6220860.0, "trend": 0.006233, "fair_value": 0.006341, "relative_strength": -32.769282, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.38109, "energy": 59.444257, "activity_lines": [ 0.005467, 0.006127, 0.006524, 0.0064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.005, "volume": 3862900, "typical_volume": 6257900.0, "trend": 0.0062, "fair_value": 0.00627, "relative_strength": -32.94339, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.999572, "energy": 66.114909, "activity_lines": [ 0.0052, 0.005855, 0.006376, 0.00632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.005, "volume": 4707100, "typical_volume": 6493255.0, "trend": 0.006167, "fair_value": 0.006206, "relative_strength": -33.47479, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.643128, "energy": 73.784164, "activity_lines": [ 0.005067, 0.005618, 0.006233, 0.006243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }