{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbd2355a-5360-4dc8-8f6e-924aa3981ea2", "symbol": "ILLM", "name": "illumin Holdings Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.623, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.704, "architecture_energy": 35.793, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.616, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.27, "rotation_up": 26.3, "upward_expansion": 14.37, "deceleration": 64.12, "rotation_down": 48.86, "downward_expansion": 75.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.680667, 0.679455, 0.725667, 0.762828 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.81, "trend_reference": 0.823167, "distance_from_trend": -0.015995, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.563397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.481898, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.237054, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.221154, "excess_performance": -0.341575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015995, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116774, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.481898, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011857, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.292371, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138566, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221154, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.207116, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 997000, "relative_activity": 3.85314, "balance": 2.207116, "dry_up": 2.660966, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093067, "annualized_volatility": 0.56824, "from_high_reference": -0.496894, "from_low_reference": 0.396552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.823167, "fair_value_reference": 1.563397, "structural_low": 0.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.021583, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": -0.041557, "regime_survival": 0.840909, "best_return": 0.208054, "worst_return": -0.403042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.06089, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.107623, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.109589, "worst_return": -0.445455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.216795, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.217442, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.369863, "worst_return": -0.614621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.433789, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.492746, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.146497, "worst_return": -0.703069, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-30", "end": "2023-07-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.093407, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.254777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.210811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.45, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.258824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 0.65, 0.698, 0.752381, 0.795194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.63, "volume": 1219000, "typical_volume": 297040.0, "trend": 0.848, "fair_value": 1.586026, "relative_strength": -46.528387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.974368, "energy": 88.48002, "activity_lines": [ 0.636, 0.679273, 0.737452, 0.780269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.6, "volume": 178200, "typical_volume": 274250.0, "trend": 0.832333, "fair_value": 1.574231, "relative_strength": -46.952782, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.527501, "energy": 90.057025, "activity_lines": [ 0.62, 0.658364, 0.721095, 0.764269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.81, "volume": 997000, "typical_volume": 258750.0, "trend": 0.823167, "fair_value": 1.563397, "relative_strength": -29.237054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.704055, "energy": 35.792515, "activity_lines": [ 0.680667, 0.679455, 0.725667, 0.762828 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }