{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbd3e57a-fedb-4fe0-8c8e-74f095f9ecc7", "symbol": "002692", "name": "Yuan Cheng Cable Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.62, "architecture_energy": 59.418, "architecture_maturity": 59.9, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 11.49, "deceleration": 56.06, "rotation_down": 51.58, "downward_expansion": 84.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.836, 3.842351, 4.315457, 4.697823 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.04, "trend_reference": 5.096973, "distance_from_trend": -0.207373, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.528941, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.52773, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.270758, "excess_performance": -0.278158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.207373, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080134, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107959, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.255277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.270758, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.262846, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73237400, "relative_activity": 0.584214, "balance": 0.262846, "dry_up": 0.638563, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101296, "annualized_volatility": 0.46886, "from_high_reference": -0.440962, "from_low_reference": 0.213213 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.096973, "fair_value_reference": 4.528941, "structural_low": 3.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001571, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016558, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.196375, "worst_return": -0.108642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052786, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.018729, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.345714, "worst_return": -0.056604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.150289, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.065973, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.240469, "worst_return": -0.089474, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-36.090356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.43032, "energy": 87.615931, "activity_lines": [ 3.856667, 4.156622, 4.802727, 5.064977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.61, "volume": 70147600, "typical_volume": 143435957.1, "trend": 5.228973, "fair_value": 4.525732, "relative_strength": -32.332295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.191266, "energy": 88.416937, "activity_lines": [ 3.754667, 3.994209, 4.64854, 4.956871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.58, "volume": 95012329, "typical_volume": 142706787.25, "trend": 5.174639, "fair_value": 4.525135, "relative_strength": -32.57366, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.523938, "energy": 86.842118, "activity_lines": [ 3.678667, 3.865495, 4.501782, 4.850486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.9, "volume": 81805198, "typical_volume": 135286586.35, "trend": 5.131639, "fair_value": 4.526462, "relative_strength": -24.859325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.70542, "energy": 76.887627, "activity_lines": [ 3.740667, 3.829595, 4.396405, 4.768251 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.04, "volume": 73237400, "typical_volume": 125360505.65, "trend": 5.096973, "fair_value": 4.528941, "relative_strength": -25.52773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.619594, "energy": 59.418451, "activity_lines": [ 3.836, 3.842351, 4.315457, 4.697823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }