{ "ticker": { "uuid": "dbd5c8eb-ddad-4c60-beb6-16490772831f", "symbol": "PRAKASH", "name": "Prakash Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.082, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.434, "architecture_energy": 59.101, "architecture_maturity": 8.577, "architecture_confidence": 78.636, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.22, "rotation_up": 14.34, "upward_expansion": 28.07, "deceleration": 49.17, "rotation_down": 68.56, "downward_expansion": 55.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.713332, 130.105999, 135.510714, 134.839978 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 128.729996, "trend_reference": 133.015, "distance_from_trend": -0.032214, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 157.687258, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183637, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.160018, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011973, "excess_performance": 0.031736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032214, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014417, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183637, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182539, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011973, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.411217, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1554898, "relative_activity": 0.90351, "balance": 0.411217, "dry_up": 0.742399, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06401, "annualized_volatility": 0.305382, "from_high_reference": -0.276682, "from_low_reference": 0.167725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 133.015, "fair_value_reference": 157.687258, "structural_low": 110.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031609, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.019577, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.071024, "worst_return": -0.092593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048544, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.020703, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.500982, "worst_return": -0.122126, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06896, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080069, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.803536, "worst_return": -0.069684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 123.769997, "volume": 1214095, "typical_volume": 1859387.4, "trend": 134.096, "fair_value": 157.233708, "relative_strength": -9.788072, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.641157, "energy": 52.038678, "activity_lines": [ 128.065332, 134.103636, 137.405524, 135.824387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.400002, "volume": 930007, "typical_volume": 1771830.3, "trend": 133.292333, "fair_value": 157.435034, "relative_strength": -11.870263, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.061578, "energy": 61.637115, "activity_lines": [ 125.348666, 131.436727, 136.210572, 135.134323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 128.729996, "volume": 1554898, "typical_volume": 1720951.9, "trend": 133.015, "fair_value": 157.687258, "relative_strength": -8.160018, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.434496, "energy": 59.10102, "activity_lines": [ 125.713332, 130.105999, 135.510714, 134.839978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }